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The altcoin market has recently seen significant growth, led by Bitcoin (BTC). Many altcoins have outperformed the largest cryptocurrency. However, experienced crypto analyst Jason Pizzino claims that the real altcoin season has not yet begun.
Date for the Altcoin Season
Based on a historical model, Pizzino predicts that the actual altcoin season will start around October 2024. His prediction is based on previous market cycles focused on Bitcoin‘s halving that occurs every four years. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in April 2024, reducing the block reward per mined block in BTC.
Pizzino explained his expectation for the altcoin season, stating, “This is not the altcoin season that most people expect. However, significant gains are still possible. But looking at this Bitcoin chart, it shows that the major altcoin season has not arrived yet, and the biggest gains are yet to come for all. This indicates the arrival of significant gains that we have not yet seen in the market.”
Analyzing the shared Bitcoin chart, it can be seen that previous bull market cycles typically lasted three years (36 months). The first 18-month period confirmed the upward trend, while the second 18-month period witnessed significant gains. Therefore, the altcoin season usually starts in the second half, months after the completion of the block reward halving.
The Explosive Growth Model of Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano
The analyst highlighted that the altcoin king Ethereum (ETH) experienced a leading surge towards the Bitcoin halving years of October 2016 and October 2020. Then, during the period he considers as the altcoin season, Ethereum recorded even greater increases. He stated:
“We need to look at two cycles in Ethereum. In the last cycle in October 2020, it had a 1,300% increase. When we look at where it was from the bottom to the top, we see that it increased by 277% until that October period. In October 2016, there was a 2,200% increase from the bottom to the top. So, where is the other increase? It’s right here, and it’s a whopping 14,000%… The only thing I’m doing here is making sure that this figure is smaller than this one. This confirms the validation of this increase.”
Pizzino also mentioned a similar pattern for the Ethereum rival Solana (SOL) in 2020. He said, “Solana had a 20,000% increase in October 2020. If you bought in April 2020 and didn’t sell until October 2020, you would have experienced an increase of about 500%. So, there are good gains in both cases.”
The analyst emphasized another Ethereum competitor, Cardano (ADA), and its similar price model. He stated, “Cardano also experienced a 3,400% increase from October 2020 to the peak. It had a roughly 400% increase from the bottom in March 2020 to October 2020. So, the smaller-scale increase that occurred first confirms the approaching big explosion in the altcoin market.”
