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QCP experts, whose analyses we often share, have shared their latest comments on the current market situation. High volatility hours continue for BTC, and at the time of writing, we saw the price recover after a $700 drop candle. So, what are analysts’ expectations for the markets?
QCP Analysts Crypto Commentary
The QCP analysts, who were largely wrong in their predictions for the end of last year, encountered an unexpected fourth-quarter performance. Perhaps they had not anticipated that the excitement over ETF approval would rise to such an extent. Now they have published their first evaluations for the new year.
Today’s assessment starts as follows;
“The much-anticipated BTC Spot ETF launch is planned to take place at any time from tonight’s US close to next week.
On the road to this significant event, both BTC and ETH funding and futures have risen sharply. This situation began to occur in the fourth quarter of 2023, but the levels really started to shift this week, especially in 2024.
Continuous swap funding rates on some exchanges like Deribit went over 100% (annualized) and there was also a surge in the spot-futures basis. The 1-month spread rose up to 30%! These were levels we saw for a very short time when BTC was at 69 thousand levels.
Funding rates normalized a bit and forwards slightly fell after the leverage reduction event on January 3rd. This was triggered by some reports suggesting that the SEC would not approve an ETF without a comprehensive Surveillance Sharing Agreement (SSA). BTC retreated from the 45.5 thousand level to the 40.8 thousand level within an hour, and a total of 591 million USD worth of liquidations occurred in the markets.
For now, the upside is limited by resistance in the 46,000 – 48,500 region, while support is in the 40,500 – 42,000 region. Despite the leveraged wipeout, BTC climbed back up to the 44,000 level.”
What Are the Market Expectations?
Clearing out leverages was important for further increases, and spot volumes need to return to their old days. Even as this article was being prepared, we saw volatility that caused the closure of positions worth 270 million dollars, which could be positive in the medium and long term.
“While we continue to be cautious against a ‘sell the news‘ reaction to the downside, this resilient price action reminds us of the bullish narrative supported by BTC’s halving story towards March/April this year.
Crypto prices continue to diverge from TradFi markets due to the bullish ETF narrative. Interest markets are pricing in 6 cuts for 2024 despite the Fed’s dot plot forecasting 3 cuts. This aggressive pricing in the interest markets could quickly unravel and turn into a flight from macro risk if new data points indicate a resurgence in the strength of the job market or higher inflation, which is definitely an important macro risk to watch out for.
If the Spot BTC ETF is approved, attention will quickly shift to the ETH spot ETF, making ETH an interesting delayed play. ETHBTC is also sitting on very strong support at the 0.051 level.”
Many experts are saying similar things to the last part and talking about how 2024 could be the year of ETH.
