The popular memecoin Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw an unprecedented rise in its price last quarter, reaching levels not seen in over two years. This upward trend was largely due to Bitcoin‘s (BTC) record-breaking surge to its all-time high. However, despite this recent historic rally, the outlook for April and the second quarter as a whole indicates a downward trend for SHIB.
Historical Trend Points to a Decline
Data from Cryptorank shows that April has historically been unfavorable for Shiba Inu’s SHIB, with an average monthly gain of 8.93%. In previous years, SHIB exhibited high volatility in April. There was a significant increase of 69.4% in April 2021, while the trend reversed in April 2022 and 2023, with the price dropping by 22% and 6.41% respectively. Currently, SHIB has started the last April with a 5.53% decline.
When evaluating Shiba Inu’s performance on a quarterly basis, the second quarter (Q2) generally appears to be the weakest period historically for the altcoin. According to Cryptorank’s data, there was a positive trend of 628.9% in the second quarter of 2021, but subsequent years saw a negative trend, with declines of 60.2% and 30.2% in the second quarters of 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Things May Change This Time
Despite these historical trends, there are some indicators that the current quarter’s price performance for Shiba Inu could be different. The ecosystem surrounding Shiba Inu points to a positive trend with several bullish catalysts that could potentially rebalance the bull-bear struggle.
One of these catalysts is the upcoming fourth Bitcoin block reward halving this month, which consistently helps reduce Bitcoin’s supply every four years. Moreover, the consistent continuation of SHIB burns. Just last month, a total of 15.6 billion SHIB were burned, removing them from circulation and resulting in a surprising 2,330% increase in the altcoin’s token burn rate.
In addition, the growing adoption of Shiba Inu’s Layer 2 scaling solution Shibarium is contributing to the ecosystem’s growth. With significant milestones reached by Shibarium, the foundation of the Shiba Inu ecosystem is becoming stronger. This leads to the assessment that the second quarter of 2024 could be positive for SHIB, contrary to historical trends.
