Bitcoin (BTC) price has once again dropped below $58,000, and altcoins are experiencing around 3% losses. Most are in the red, and investors’ risk appetite has significantly diminished following the failed attempt at $65,000. A crypto analyst compared the present with the past to predict future trends.
Bitcoin Investors
What will not happen seems more certain than what will. If BTC continues to remain weak, low volumes and seller dominance will likely prevent any rise. Unless we see a major, unexpected trigger. Avocado_onchain from CryptoQuant analyzed the current market situation. The expert, looking at UTXO outputs, wrote:
“The decreasing ratio of these UTXOs indicates that these investors either exited the market due to losses during Bitcoin’s stagnant movement or continued to hold and moved to the six months and above group.”
The mentioned investor group represents those who entered the markets expecting further rises just before the six-month-long boring sideways movement. This group played an active role in reaching the peak at $73,777.
Bitcoin Price Historical Data
The analyst evaluated unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), also known as UTXO age bands. These show how long investors have been holding and track investor sentiment and cycle stages based on changes. The shared chart resembles 2019.
Before surpassing the $20,000 peak set in 2017, UTXO age bands indicated that new investors created a similar pattern.
“A similar structure formed around the 2019 halving event, and it took approximately 490 days for Bitcoin to reach its all-time high (ATH) afterward – of course, we must also consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
The group referred to as new investors differs from short-term investors holding BTC for less than 155 days. Unlike the STH group, this group provides support during bull markets, but under current conditions, new investors are waiting in loss.
“Currently, Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a wide range for over six months with no clear trigger for a breakout. While I have no doubt about the long-term upward trend, I believe it would be wise to temper short-term expectations and closely monitor the market. Historically, capital inflows from new investors have been a critical condition for Bitcoin’s price increases.”
If the expected rise occurs in October, experts may say the new investor group had already signaled the bottom. If the rise does not start, analysts will again claim they predicted it.
