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Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) 
$106,139 is unlikely to deliver returns as high as it did in the last market cycle. In his recent market analysis, Cowen stated that Bitcoin’s return on investment (ROI) could decline compared to previous cycles.
ROI Compared to the Past
Cowen noted, “Two cycles ago – meaning market cycle three – Bitcoin’s ROI during this cycle was about 5.55 times. Currently, Bitcoin’s ROI measured from the low is between 6.1-7 times.” He also mentioned that the ROI at the same point in the previous cycle was 9.9 times. This data suggests that the current cycle’s ROI is fluctuating between the last two cycles.
Cowen predicts that as Bitcoin’s market capitalization increases, the returns will decrease.
“This mirrors the situation in the last cycle, where everyone was discussing declining returns, and there was disagreement on how long it would last. Many believed this would continue, and that perspective is not wrong.”
Historical Data and Expectations
Cowen added, “It seems history is repeating itself. While the ROI in the last cycle was higher than the previous one, it fell below earlier levels as the cycle came to an end.” He expressed that a similar situation may occur this time; everything may seem fine initially, but returns will likely start to decline at some point.
“Two cycles ago, Bitcoin’s rise from the bottom was a 100-fold move. To achieve similar growth in upcoming cycles, much more capital is needed.” — Benjamin Cowen
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $101,100, experiencing a 1% decrease in the last 24 hours. If the decline this cycle follows a similar pattern to the previous cycle, BTC could be expected to peak above $120,000.
These analyses provide Bitcoin traders with an opportunity to reassess their return expectations based on market cycles. Understanding how larger market caps may impact potential returns could be crucial in shaping investment strategies.
