Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs executive, argues that increasing global liquidity could significantly impact the rise of Bitcoin 
$78,262 and other cryptocurrencies. Pal points to a historical relationship between the global money supply indicator (M2) and Bitcoin, emphasizing the potential for notable changes in the current market structure.
Market Dynamics
Pal stresses that the tightening of liquidity due to high dollar and interest rates in Q4 2024 is gradually coming to an end. He notes the resurgence of global money supply, indicating that the current correction is a normal market movement.
“This too shall pass. Crypto is still feeling the tightening caused by a stronger dollar and higher interest rates in Q4 2024. This is almost completed, financial conditions are rapidly easing, and M2 is returning to new peaks. This is just a normal correction.” – Raoul Pal
Pal cites similar market movements from 2017, where a sharp correction occurred due to a high-interest environment and dollar strengthening. He suggests that the subsequent rallies led to a market recovery.
“We experienced the same correction in 2017 due to the reaction to Trump’s policies (higher dollar and higher rates, then reversed).” – Raoul Pal
Technical Analysis and Future Expectations
From a technical analysis perspective, Pal indicates that Bitcoin is trading within a logarithmic regression channel that may assist in identifying potential peaks and troughs of the asset. According to this method, the price is expected to continue rising within the channel over time.
“Over time, we continue to climb the log regression channel. We will see whether we remain in the main channel (red) or climb one or two standard deviations higher as the cycle develops.” – Raoul Pal
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $80,700, showing a short-term upward trend. Investors may closely monitor market developments in light of increasing global liquidity and the potential new momentum created by technical indicators.
