Bitcoin (BTC) 
$78,914 managed to push past the $106,500 threshold as a new week began, following a volatile weekend sparked by ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel. Crypto analyst Rachael Lucas from BTC Markets noted that while geopolitical instability briefly impacted Bitcoin’s value, swift recovery followed as investors viewed Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. Currently, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reflects an optimistic yet “measured” sentiment, marked at 61. Investors are also closely watching the critical decisions expected from this week’s FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin’s Rise Dynamics
Bitcoin’s price movements are being influenced by institutional investments, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical risks. Lucas remarked that events like Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities demonstrate Bitcoin’s sensitivity to risk-averse events, causing a 4% drop. However, the analyst indicated that such drops are usually followed by rapid recoveries.
Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu emphasized that despite growing geopolitical tensions, global liquidity and institutional demand remain robust. Liu suggested that these factors could lay the groundwork for a new surge once the turmoil subsides.
Last month, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $5.23 billion in net monthly inflows. This figure matches levels seen during President Donald Trump’s tenure and had previously prompted bullish signals in the market. Lucas positively commented that breaking past the $106,406 resistance indicates continuing bullish momentum, with the next major target being an all-time high.
Ethereum and the FOMC’s Market Impact
While Bitcoin maintains around 65% market dominance, major altcoin Ethereum (ETH) 
$2,498 saw a 1.48% increase within the last day, trading at $2,569. Analysts note that ETH is gaining momentum in the institutional space and may see further growth driven by catalysts like DeFi Summer. The focal point of the week, however, remains the interest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday.
According to Liu, the FOMC meeting could be a decisive moment for BTC and ETH prices. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 96.7% likelihood that the Fed will maintain the interest rate within the existing 4.25% – 4.50% range.
As reported by Financial Times, Trump pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a full 1% rate cut, warning that the White House might force action otherwise.
Analysts highlight that alongside the Fed’s interest rate decisions, potential announcements from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Treasury concerning ETFs or stablecoins could also influence investor sentiment and market inflows.
