In recent weeks, the overall altcoin market, including the largest memecoin Dogecoin 
$0.082359 (DOGE), has been under downward pressure. This bearish pressure has brought the entire cryptocurrency market‘s value to 3.25 trillion dollars as of June 19, reflecting a 0.66% decrease. Dogecoin’s price alone has declined by more than 25% over the last four weeks, trading around 0.167 dollars during the time of writing. With a fully diluted market value of nearly 25 billion dollars since the beginning of the year, Dogecoin, much like the rest of the altcoin market, finds itself stuck in a downward trend.
The Key Factors Influencing Dogecoin’s Medium-Term Outlook
Dogecoin, protected by the proof of work (PoW) consensus mechanism, has drawn more institutional investors over the past year. In the United States, several fund managers have applied to the SEC for the approval of spot Dogecoin ETFs, awaiting decisions.
Market participants on Polymarket estimate a 67% likelihood of the SEC approving spot Dogecoin ETFs before the end of the year. This development is seen as a significant potential factor that could support Dogecoin in the medium term.
Short-Term Expectations for Dogecoin’s Price
Since the start of 2024, Dogecoin’s price was moving within an overall bullish channel characterized by higher highs and higher lows. However, the largest memecoin remains entrenched in a noticeable downward trend since the beginning of the year.
On the weekly timeframe, DOGE coin’s price seems to be attempting to retest last year’s ascending logarithmic trend line. Following a recent encounter with a strong resistance level at approximately 0.25 dollars and subsequent pullback, the memecoin faces a potential 30% drop towards its support level around 0.11 dollars.
This short-term bearish scenario is further supported by the weekly MACD indicator’s signal line turning downward and increasing bearish histogram bars. However, the current short-term bearish pressure on DOGE’s price could be invalidated if the memecoin consistently breaks through the descending logarithmic trend line established since the year’s onset.
