Recent developments in the global economic landscape suggest that a strategic scenario is unfolding, reminiscent of preparations for the Iran ceasefire. This time, the focus is on interest rate cuts, with a structured plan seemingly in motion. The decline in oil prices is easing inflation concerns, and major tariff agreements expected on July 4 are creating an environment conducive to rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. This raises the question of how Bitcoin (BTC) 
$77,196 and Ethereum (ETH) 
$2,421 prices will react to these shifts.
The Role of Fed Interest Rate Cuts
Three Federal Reserve members expressed a preference for rate cuts in July, while two others believe it’s too soon. The decisive factor for these rate cuts will be the impact of tariffs on inflation. The scope of tariff deals we anticipate around July 4 will be instrumental in guiding the Fed’s actions.
President Trump recently commented on this issue, suggesting that tariffs imposed during June, July, or August could have significant inflationary effects. In the absence of such impacts, an early transition to rate cuts might be feasible. While interest rates currently stand high, there’s a substantial margin for reduction compared to historically low-rate periods.
However, the latest hours saw a noteworthy headline from the Financial Times. The report claims that the European Union, akin to Trump, might be planning retaliatory tariffs to strengthen its stance. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s assurance of a deal by September, alongside extending the July 9 deadline, adds tension. Trump may escalate the issue, declaring no deal at all.
Upcoming PCE data on Friday and tariff news leading up to the July 4 Independence Day will be crucial. Currently, BTC stands at $105,900.
Predictions for BTC and ETH Prices
Institutional demand remains robust, with spot BTC ETFs surpassing $1 trillion in cumulative volume in less than 18 months. Bitcoin ETFs have ignited more excitement than Gold’s ETF debut, and a continued growth could rival the largest centralized exchanges in terms of BTC holdings.
DaanCrypto shared insights on Bitcoin’s price performance, noting lackluster results during the US and EU sessions, while the Asian session remained relatively flat. Momentum has stalled overall across increased timeframes, with no clear direction emerging in the past month. Significant ETF inflows have been noted, yet general selling continues during US sessions, indicating substantial supply within the current price range. Ultimately, the price is expected to exceed this level, but it may take time.
For the ETH price, CryptoNoach offered an analysis.
The analyst emphasized the importance of maintaining the $2,450 support level, predicting a potential fall back to the $2,100-$2,150 demand zone in the event of significant decline. However, given the positive reception of ETF inflows, expectations are relatively optimistic. If the momentum sustains, ETH might quickly rally to the $2,750-$3,000 range, reaching pre-war levels, contingent on continued positive market sentiment.
