In October 2025, Bitcoin 
$78,680 achieved an unprecedented nominal value of over $126,000, marking a historic peak. Despite this impressive milestone, the inflation-adjusted reality paints a less optimistic picture. Analysis from Alex Thorn, the Head of Galaxy Research, indicates that when adjusted to the 2020 dollar value, Bitcoin hasn’t surpassed the $100,000 mark. According to Thorn, using US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, Bitcoin’s inflation-adjusted peak stands at merely $99,848. This revelation reignites debates about Bitcoin’s “real value” in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin’s True Performance Under Inflation’s Shadow
The US Department of Labor’s CPI data highlights that inflation remains a significant pressure point. With November’s annual inflation rate pegged at 2.7%, the cost of goods and services has increased by approximately 1.25 times since 2020. This implies a dollar’s purchasing power has diminished by about 20%. Therefore, Bitcoin’s record-breaking dollar value does not equate to a robust increase in real terms.
Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 11% over 2025, falling to 97.8, indicating the dollar’s weakening against global currencies. The September level of 96.3 was recorded as the lowest in three years. Experts suggest this scenario steers investors toward strategies known as “monetary erosion trade,” where they turn to assets like Bitcoin, characterized by limited supply, to hedge against devaluing fiat currencies.
Institutional Moves and Market Divergence
Amid these discussions, an analysis by VanEck sheds light on another perspective. The company suggests recent Bitcoin pullbacks aren’t crashes but rather healthy market resets. Despite observable declines in on-chain data and miner participation, cleansing excessive leveraged positions ultimately strengthens liquidity in the long run. A notable divergence in investor behaviors is visible: while exits from exchange-traded products are occurring, aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions into corporate balance sheets are notable.
Additionally, new drafts on crypto regulations in the US and Europe are creating volatility in price expectations for 2026. Some analysts anticipate that due to regulatory uncertainty, Bitcoin might fall back to the $65,000 level, while long-term investors maintain their positions. This mirrors periods from the past marked by “miner capitulation” and low-risk appetite before price stabilization.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s inflation-adjusted peak being below $100,000 offers a more realistic perspective rather than weakening its role as a “store of value.” Analyses using real values rather than nominal figures help guide investors toward healthier expectations. Despite short-term fluctuations, sustained institutional interest remains a key driver supporting Bitcoin’s long-term narrative.
