This week marks a critical juncture in the ongoing crisis around Iran, with rhetoric steadily shifting in a direction favorable to cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Tehran has not denied yesterday’s reports of a comprehensive 15-point deal, and anticipation is building for Thursday’s first official US-Iran meeting since the escalation of hostilities. While the international focus remains on potential diplomatic breakthroughs, domestic crypto news is dominating Turkey’s agenda.
Cryptocurrencies and the Iran Crisis
Global markets responded swiftly as Washington ramped up efforts to end the conflict with Iran, resulting in a rebound in equities, a surge in bond prices, and a steep decline in oil. The recent announcement that the United States floated a 15-point Middle East stabilization plan pushed S&P 500 futures up by 0.8%, signaling a fresh wave of optimism among risk assets.
Despite the continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices plunged below $100 per barrel—a 5% drop. This came after Iran signaled that it would permit the passage of non-hostile ships for a $2 million fee, prompting vessels to start transiting the strait yesterday. This resumption could further depress prices of oil, fertilizer, and other key commodities if it persists today.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index notched a 1.4% gain, recording its first three-day winning streak since the start of hostilities. The renewed hope for peace is reshaping economic forecasts. While the US Federal Reserve was once expected to maintain a hawkish approach into 2026, market consensus now sees only a 20% chance of a rate hike, with at least one rate cut anticipated. The Bank of England is also expected to raise rates two or three times, while anticipation swells for policy tightening from the European Central Bank—even though President Lagarde has downplayed the urgency. Should peace prospects solidify, these hawkish expectations might be reversed, offering a potential boon for cryptocurrencies.
Market watchers predict that if Thursday’s talks are confirmed by Iran, Bitcoin could surge past $74,000 by weekend. However, if negotiations stall, a pullback towards $68,000 remains on the table.
Crypto Regulation Efforts in Turkey
In Turkey, stalled legislative procedures have once again delayed debate over the long-awaited crypto regulation law. Yesterday’s session was postponed due to a quorum issue, so Parliament reconvened this afternoon. As of this report, lawmakers were still engaged in preliminary speeches, and the latest bill draft dated March 2 retains a controversial provision imposing a 10% levy on local exchanges.
The possibility of even steeper taxes on withdrawals from global platforms—ranging from 15% to 40%—has caused weeks of unrest among Turkey’s crypto community. Lawmakers have yet to formally address these concerns. With millions involved in digital asset trading, users are pressing for a reduction of these onerous taxes to single-digit rates. While many countries saw crypto become an electoral issue, influencing the outcome of key elections in South Korea, Japan, and even the US, Turkish politicians appear reluctant to recognize the electoral power crypto voters could wield. In last year’s US election, for example, Donald Trump capitalized on his pro-crypto stance, increasing support as his rival Kamala Harris hesitated to engage on the topic.
United States
The 2024 US presidential election saw Donald Trump launch one of the most aggressive crypto-focused campaigns in American history. He pledged to make the US “the world’s crypto capital,” establish a national Bitcoin reserve, and remove SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who is widely viewed as crypto-skeptical.
Major donations from the crypto sector and robust support from so-called “crypto voters” proved decisive for Trump’s victory. Following the election, Bitcoin continued to set new records, signaling market confidence in his campaign promises.
South Korea
Crypto assets took center stage among voters in their 20s and 30s during South Korea’s 2024 general election. Both the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the opposition Democratic Party (DPK) promised to allow spot Bitcoin ETFs and postpone or abolish a 22% tax on crypto gains. With the DPK winning the election, crypto-friendly policies remain prominent. In South Korea, digital asset pledges are now seen as crucial for securing the youth vote, rather than being a one-issue decider.
Japan
Unlike the US, where cryptocurrencies were a political battleground, Japan has adopted a more pragmatic, policy-driven approach. The government is integrating Web3 and crypto assets into national economic strategy, while advancing reforms—such as lowering high tax rates and developing ETF regulations—slated for 2025. Here, economic stability takes precedence in election debates, with crypto policy supported as part of broader growth plans.
