Bitcoin faced renewed scrutiny this week as analyst Ivan Liljeqvist argued that the cryptocurrency has not yet reached its lowest point for the current cycle. Despite a short-lived rally near $76,000 triggered by geopolitical factors and surprising U.S. Producer Price Index data, Liljeqvist pointed to signals indicating that a more significant correction may still be ahead.
Cycle bottom debate intensifies
Ivan Liljeqvist, also known as Ivan on Tech, is a prominent Swedish crypto analyst and educator with a large social media presence. He is recognized for providing market insights and technical analyses focused on digital assets.
He weighed in on recent price action, cautioning that Bitcoin has yet to see what he described as the “big flush.” According to his view, the approximate $60,000 level did not establish a solid price floor, and the dominant pattern remains bearish in the medium term.
Liljeqvist assessed that even though Bitcoin has shown short bounces, they remain minor compared to the overall downward movement observed when looking at broader timeframes.
“I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom. You can pray for it of course but it won’t help. Trend is still down. The few % bounces are tiny if you zoom out,” he wrote on social media.
Beyond technicals, Liljeqvist highlighted MicroStrategy’s recent activities as a source of market influence. MicroStrategy, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, is known for being the largest public company holder of Bitcoin, with its stock and digital asset strategies closely watched by the industry.
The analyst noted that buy pressure around MicroStrategy’s STRC stock tends to spike around the middle of the month, linked to the company’s dividend cycle. This provides liquidity and potential capital for further Bitcoin purchases. However, Liljeqvist observed that this dynamic alone may not be enough to overcome key resistance zones for Bitcoin’s price.
He described the broader environment as “risk-off since October,” emphasizing the importance of capital preservation and suggesting that traders should remain cautious in the coming weeks.
Institutional involvement shapes correction expectations
Despite flagging the risk of a larger correction, some industry research points to a more moderated downside for Bitcoin in this cycle compared to previous years. Fidelity Digital Assets recently commented that, so far in 2026, Bitcoin’s decline from its peak has not matched the dramatic drops seen in past bear phases.
Around 12% of Bitcoin’s supply is now held by public companies and exchange-traded funds, according to Fidelity, which could act as a buffer against extreme volatility. In past cycles, mainly driven by retail investors, Bitcoin dropped 82% after peaking in 2017 and 77% following its 2021 high. The current retracement of about 40% from the record suggests changing market dynamics.
Market participants are closely watching whether growing institutional participation can set a meaningful floor or if further capitulation will unfold as 2026 progresses.
