Tensions have spiked in the Middle East after Donald Trump publicly claimed that China agreed to stop supplying weapons to Iran, directly linking this assertion to ongoing attempts to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz. This strait is a major global chokepoint for oil transit, and recent events have raised concerns throughout both the energy and cryptocurrency markets.
Trump’s announcement and China’s denial fuel global uncertainty
In a recent post on the social platform Truth Social, Trump stated that Beijing had decided to halt arms transfers to Tehran, presenting this development as a diplomatic win tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He expressed confidence that Chinese President Xi Jinping would warmly receive the initiative during an expected future visit.
Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States and an active political figure, is known for deploying economic and diplomatic pressure on global rivals. The claim arrives amid heightened tensions in the region, following failed negotiations in Islamabad between US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, and their Iranian counterparts.
Shortly after, the United States initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, beginning around April 13. US-led forces began intercepting ships and clearing mines near the Strait, intensifying the standoff in one of the world’s most vital energy corridors.
Around 20% to 30% of all global seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and lingering disruptions have led to reduced shipping traffic and fears of rising energy prices and supply chain instability.
China’s Foreign Ministry, however, described the US-led blockade as “a dangerous and irresponsible move,” warning that it could escalate regional tensions and jeopardize fragile ceasefire arrangements. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun also rejected the accusations of Chinese arms transfers to Iran, calling them “groundless smears” and underscoring Beijing’s commitment to strict export controls. No third-party confirmation of any formal arms agreement between China and Iran has emerged so far.
Bitwise: geopolitical crisis spotlights Bitcoin’s evolving role
Amid the turmoil, the role of Bitcoin as more than just a store of value is gaining renewed attention. Since the onset of US and Israeli strikes on February 28, Bitcoin has risen 12%, even as traditional safe-haven assets like gold fell by 10%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1% over the same period. This divergence has attracted commentary from analysts at Bitwise, a prominent digital asset manager.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, argued that the global conflict is driving Bitcoin’s outperformance. He likened Bitcoin’s potential as a currency to an out-of-the-money call option whose value increases with volatility.
“If Bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value (like gold) and an actual currency (like the dollar), we may need to revise our targets higher,” noted Hougan in a market outlook.
A recent Iranian policy also drew interest, as the nation began charging ships around $1 per barrel in Bitcoin to traverse the strait, generating potentially $21 million in daily cryptocurrency inflows. This move was cited by Bitwise as further evidence of Bitcoin’s growing significance in international settlements.
Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise’s head of research, echoed this perspective, suggesting their prior forecasts for the cryptocurrency may be underestimated. He remarked that if Bitcoin assumes both a safe-haven role and becomes a functional currency, a long-term price trajectory of $1 million per coin could become plausible.
Bitcoin continued to trade near $73,894, maintaining momentum from a recent rally to its highest level since early February. The outcome of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is expected to determine future moves in both the oil and cryptocurrency markets.
