Ripple’s legal troubles might be behind it, but like the rest of the world, the company and its XRP token remain exposed to global uncertainties, including the recent tensions with Iran. While aggressive geopolitical moves and trade tariffs have kept market sentiment cautious, on-chain analytics platform Santiment is spotting bullish signals for XRP. According to Santiment, a major uptick detected on the XRP Ledger could foreshadow a renewed rally for the cryptocurrency.
On-chain data hints at upward momentum
As the weekend approaches, all eyes are on potential talks between the United States and Iran, though there is still official silence from Tehran. Iran’s Foreign Minister has confirmed impending discussions with Pakistani officials, so unless there’s a sudden twist, a diplomatic thaw could persist into the weekend, calming investor nerves.
Amidst political uncertainties, Santiment reported that over 34.94 million XRP exited centralized exchanges in one of the largest withdrawal waves of the year. Historically, such sizable outflows are considered a bullish signal for price, the sixth biggest of 2024, with previous cases being followed by notable upward moves in XRP’s value.
ETF flows and price projections
Turning to institutional trends, the ETF channel for XRP has shown resilience. Since April 9, there have been no major outflows, and from April 14 to 16, steady inflows exceeding $10 million per day were recorded, signaling robust appetite from institutional investors. This week also saw daily inflows above $2 million, lending further support to bullish sentiment.
During this period, XRP tested resistance in its trading channel before pulling back to $1.43, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to news out of Iran. Holding above the $1.40 support level is seen as a positive sign, and staying in the mid-range of the channel keeps the door open for a retest of the $1.507 resistance.
If Santiment’s historical signals play out and geopolitics remain stable, bullish traders could push the price toward resistance. Should this momentum continue, eyes will turn to the next targets at $1.54 and $1.60.
However, investors are also watching the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed’s next policy meeting is set for April 29, and it will be Jerome Powell’s final session before a potential leadership transition to Kevin Warsh. Analysts expect with 99.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged. Energy inflation could drive Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures sharply higher, and the extended Iran crisis is likely to keep markets on their toes, with the oil market expected to take months to normalize even if a deal is reached.
This caution means that even positive news over the weekend could be tempered by renewed risk awareness as the Fed meeting draws near. Price dips could see XRP closing below $1.38, with possible further declines to $1.35 or even $1.30.
Institutional flows and exchange withdrawals indicate optimism for XRP, but investors should remain watchful as both geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policy decisions weigh on short-term price direction.
Ultimately, analysts highlight that any breakout for XRP will depend on a delicate balance between surging on-chain activity, external events, and central bank policies. The next few days could prove decisive in shaping the token’s near-term trajectory.
