On Monday, May 6, Bitcoin surged to $80,500, its highest level in three months. For the first time since January 31, BTC re-entered this price band, bringing it just below the average cost for short-term investors. The movement above $80,000 captured the market’s attention, as focus shifted toward the $81,486 level—a value notable as the average purchase price of coins that have moved in the past 155 days. For short-term traders, this figure represents a crucial psychological barrier.
Short-term investors feel the pressure
Analysts emphasize that a daily close above $81,500 is key for the rally to continue. Should BTC clear this resistance, short-term investors would return to profit and a significant decrease in selling pressure is expected. Crypto analyst Crazyyblockk reports that short-term holders’ average losses have dropped to about 2.17%, while seller volume keeps shrinking. Despite medium-term profit sitting at roughly 27% for long-term holders, they are showing little inclination to sell rapidly.
Crypto analyst Crazyyblockk highlights that recent developments have sharply reduced losses for short-term investors, and though long-term holders remain comfortably in profit, their pace of selling remains slow.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is also drawing attention, having climbed from 0.99 to 1.097. This suggests coins are once again changing hands at a profit. Experts note that the absence of an uptick in long-term investor selling indicates accumulation is persisting in the market.
Exchange flows reveal shifting supply dynamics
Looking at exchange flows, data shows that 97.2% of recent incoming BTC came from short-term investors. Wallets holding between 1 and 1,000 BTC accounted for 58% of the total influx. At the peak on April 24, exchanges saw 35,649 BTC deposited, but by May 3, new inflows had dropped to 3,895 BTC. This decline provided temporary relief from selling pressure and suggested that the $80,000 mark could turn into stronger support.
Recent figures shared by researcher Axel Adler Jr indicate a net entry of 8,512 BTC to exchanges in recent days, peaking on April 27 and 30. Yet the market managed to absorb this supply without a steep price decline, showing continued robust demand.
Between May 1 and May 3, the net inflow slowed dramatically to just 269 BTC, reaching a balance point. While short-term metrics maintain a bullish trend, net flows over the longer term have nearly equalized, reflecting a more stable market.
New resistance and investor focus
Exchange reserves increased by 5,773 BTC over the week, reaching a total of 2,685,541 BTC. There was a slight dip in reserves at the end of April, but Adler Jr notes that the Bitcoin held on exchanges has not been suddenly sold, and no supply overhang has developed yet. However, a slowdown in demand could revive selling pressure going forward.
Investor and trader Ardi provides another perspective, noting that Bitcoin is once again testing resistance near $79,600. As long as this level holds, the next target is projected to be in the $84,000 range.
Crypto investor Ardi argues that by holding at $79,600, Bitcoin is maintaining an upward trajectory, making $84,000 the next logical goal.
On the other hand, if BTC drops below $80,000, attention will shift to the cost basis of new investors at $76,500, making conditions for a further rally more challenging.
Market participants remain watchful of these key levels as resistance and support zones continue to shape short-term price movements. Sustained demand and stable flows are vital if Bitcoin is to continue its recent upward momentum.
