Bitcoin has plunged by 52 percent from its all-time high amid a sharp market correction. But despite the downturn, analysts agree that the cryptocurrency is diverging significantly from previous bear cycles. One major shift is the unprecedented wave of institutional demand, highlighted by aggressive accumulation from large companies and growing interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Key differences in the current bear market
Pierre Rochard, CEO of Bitcoin Bond Company, emphasized that both the scale and substance of this decline set it apart from earlier bear markets. Between 2013 and 2015, Bitcoin plummeted roughly 85 percent; losses of approximately 77 percent were recorded in the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles. In contrast, the latest drop saw Bitcoin fall from $126,000 to $60,000 for a total decrease of 52 percent.
Rochard’s analysis attributes this relative stability to the presence of Bitcoin in company reserves and financial products. Over the past two years, spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US have attracted net inflows of over $59 billion, with $4.5 billion recorded since March alone.
Rochard explained that the volume of Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets has climbed substantially in recent years, serving as a buffer against selling pressure in the wider market.
For instance, leading player Strategy held 640,031 BTC in October 2025, a number that has since surged to 818,869 BTC. The company’s average purchase price stands at $75,543 per BTC.
New signals and analyst insights
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe also asserts that the current bear phase bears little resemblance to the cycle in 2022. Factors such as the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting a new record of 29,372 this week, the impending vote on the CLARITY Act, and the nomination of a new US Federal Reserve chair have all contributed to this divergence.
Van de Poppe commented that evolving regulations and changing macroeconomic dynamics are collectively steering the market in directions unseen in past cycles.
Meanwhile, MorenoDV, an analyst at crypto intelligence platform CryptoQuant, has identified a fresh positive signal in the platform’s “Bull-Bear Market Cycle” indicator, marking the first such emergence since March 2023. Historically, similar readings at the start of 2019 and 2023 coincided with price surges of 1,280 percent and 461 percent, respectively. Nonetheless, MorenoDV cautions that confirmation of a sustained upside move is still lacking.
Retail investors make a comeback
On-chain data shows small-scale investors returning to the market after April’s dip in trading volumes. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr revealed that the proportion of transactions from wallets holding between $0 and $10,000 in Bitcoin dropped to -8.2 percent at the start of April, but rebounded to 6.31 percent at the beginning of May and stabilized at 4.38 percent on May 12, when BTC traded at $80,625.
The same segment’s daily transaction volume climbed from $336 million in mid-April to $351 million, though these figures have not yet reached the levels observed in February, which ranged from $365 million to $375 million.
Recent data points to emerging signs of a new bull rally, as a noticeable uptick in both institutional and retail buying shapes the evolving landscape.
Experts stress that this cycle underscores how demand from both institutional and individual investors now exerts a greater influence on Bitcoin’s price action than in prior years.
