A recent report from crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin encountered significant selling pressure after reaching the 200-day moving average at $82,400. This level, historically dubbed the “major bear market resistance,” has often coincided with abrupt price pullbacks, as seen in previous cycles.
Bear market resistance returns to focus
Since early April, Bitcoin had enjoyed nearly six weeks of steady gains, drawing attention as it rallied from $66,000. However, the CryptoQuant analysis emphasized that the 200-day moving average served as a pivotal resistance during the 2022 bear market, when touching this level also triggered steep declines.
The report questioned whether history might repeat itself, comparing today’s price patterns with those of two years ago. Many market watchers believe that if the long-delayed CLARITY bill currently before the US Senate is passed, it could trigger a fresh rally in Bitcoin. Nevertheless, CryptoQuant’s data suggests the immediate outlook may be more cautious.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders’ unrealized profit margin climbed to 17.7 percent on May 5, marking its highest level since June 2023. The firm pointed out that this spike often coincides with stronger pressure to cash out, potentially heightening selling activity.
Selling pressure and profit taking hit prices
Historical analysis indicates that in March 2022, when Bitcoin again touched the 200-day average, profit margins reached similar heights before prices plunged. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price has slid 2.3 percent to $79,300.
This drop followed a brief surge in appetite for riskier assets as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. Simultaneously, new data from the US Department of Labor showed producer prices jumping by 1.4 percent in April, the fastest rise in four years, underscoring persistent inflation fears.
Adding to the signals of selling pressure, CryptoQuant’s report highlighted that on May 4, the daily realized profit in Bitcoin hit its highest mark since early December. On that day alone, 14,600 Bitcoins—worth roughly $1.2 billion—were sold into cash.
CryptoQuant underlined that intense profit-taking and similar surges, often observed during bear market rallies, tend to mark short-term price peaks.
The analytics firm stressed that if declines continue, the $70,000 mark stands out as key support. This level represents Bitcoin’s recent average traded price and the cost base for many short-term holders. As unrealized profit margins shrink at this threshold, selling pressure is expected to ease.
Market expectations and diverging views
Market experts remain divided on Bitcoin’s next move. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, argued in his social media commentary that a breakthrough in crypto legislation in the US Senate could push Bitcoin rapidly to $90,000.
Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, investment director at crypto fund Maelstrom, sees Bitcoin inevitably reaching an all-time high of $126,000. Hayes cites expectations for increased money supply amid ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions in Iran and competition between the US and China in artificial intelligence, forecasting an influx of investment into Bitcoin.
Interest from traditional finance is also growing, making Bitcoin’s price moves increasingly sensitive to US economic data. According to CryptoAppsy, Bitcoin is currently trading at $79,300.
