Ethereum‘s weakening against Bitcoin has persisted throughout the year, with the ETH/BTC trading pair on Binance sliding to its lowest levels in twelve months. Despite this, continued ETH outflows from exchanges and surging demand for spot Ethereum ETFs suggest that accumulation may still be underway.
Persistent weakness in Ethereum against Bitcoin
The ETH/BTC price chart recently fell below the significant 0.02995 support level. The pair failed to close above its 200-day moving averages, which currently stand at 0.03168 and 0.03109, establishing a substantial resistance zone.
A brief period of consolidation in March and April ultimately broke downward, pulling the ETH/BTC pair back to 0.02619. Should the pair drop below this point, the next major support area lies at 0.02194—an important base that also played a critical support role before last July’s rapid rally.
Analyst TedPillows noted via chart analysis that Ethereum’s lackluster performance versus Bitcoin has continued, even in the face of significant institutional purchases. Notably, even claims that Tom Lee has been buying over $200 million in ETH each week have not reversed ETH/BTC’s bearish momentum, indicating persistent pressure in the market.
TedPillows highlighted that, “Even as institutional buying remains strong, Ethereum’s resilience against Bitcoin has not materialized. Substantial buying in spot ETH markets has yet to show up in price action.”
For a recovery in the pair, ETH/BTC must first reclaim the 0.02995 mark. Only once it overcomes the moving averages between 0.03109 and 0.03168 could technical momentum shift more firmly to the upside.
Exchange outflows and ETF interest strengthen
Throughout the past two weeks, Ethereum’s net flow across exchanges largely remained in negative territory. According to a chart shared by Alphractal and commented on by Ray, ETH withdrawals have outweighed deposits, suggesting that investors are continuing to accumulate by moving assets off exchanges.
The data shows the exchange outflow balance—depicted in blue—has been negative since late 2025, with this trend deepening into 2026. This ongoing outflow reflects that, despite volatile price swings, many market participants prefer to hold ETH rather than sell.
Ray also pointed out that, for the first time since their April launch, spot Ethereum ETFs posted net monthly inflows, totaling $356 million for the period. This development, alongside steady withdrawals from exchanges, signals growing institutional appetite for Ethereum.
Ray commented, “Robust interest in spot ETH ETFs and ongoing exchange outflows both reinforce accumulation trends in Ethereum. However, the price has still not managed to retest its previous highs, despite these signals.”
Although the ETH price has rebounded from its early-year lows, it has yet to revisit its 2025 highs. Technically, sustaining momentum in exchange outflows and further demand for ETFs may be required for a more optimistic rally.
If the current pattern of negative exchange flow persists, the circulating ETH supply may shrink, potentially setting the stage for a new price movement in the coming months.
