Despite robust institutional demand, the price of Bitcoin has remained rangebound between $78,000 and $82,000 in recent weeks. Even as spot Bitcoin ETFs and major corporations have set new records with their purchases, the sideways price action is being linked to sizable BTC transfers from long-dormant so-called “whale” wallets dating back to Bitcoin’s earlier years.
Institutional appetite for BTC reaches historic highs
A leading strategy firm bought 24,869 BTC at an average price of $80,985 in just the past week. The company now holds a total of 843,738 BTC, representing a market value of $63.8 billion. On May 17, CEO Michael Saylor signaled further acquisitions, while observers estimate the firm added 15,466 BTC during that week alone.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs collected nearly 19,000 BTC over just nine trading days in April. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has attracted more than $66 billion in inflows since launch. ETFs recorded a single-day inflow of $630 million on May 1, and the first two days of May saw combined inflows reach $1.1 billion.
Post-halving, miners are now able to produce about 13,500 BTC each month. In comparison, institutional demand is approaching 50,000 BTC monthly—shifting the supply-demand balance strongly in favor of institutions.
Old whale wallets fueling flat price trend
Yet in spite of this intense buying interest, Bitcoin’s price has hovered in the $78,000 to $82,000 range for weeks. Analysts attribute this stagnation to sales from “old whale” wallets—early holders who accumulated BTC years ago and are only now transferring large amounts. According to analytics firm Alphractal, retail investors posted net buys on 14 of the last 21 trading days, while whale wallets were net sellers. This pattern is seen as a systematic distribution strategy, not a panic exodus or abrupt profit-taking.
The steadiness of BTC prices, despite ETF and corporate accumulation, is being explained by discreet, over-the-counter (OTC) sales from dormant whale wallets, which limit the impact on public exchange prices.
On May 11, a wallet dormant since 2013 moved 500 BTC. Whale Alert data shows that in 2026, 72% of coins exiting wallets inactive for over seven years changed hands via OTC transactions. Since the halving, 38,400 BTC have been transferred from 47 wallets untouched for more than five years—a sum matching ETF demand over a three-month span.
During this period, ETF buyers have provided a crucial exit liquidity route for early Bitcoin holders. The ongoing balance between new demand and old supply has kept prices constrained within a narrow channel.
Glossary: Over-the-counter (OTC) trades are direct, typically large-volume cryptocurrency transfers conducted privately between buyer and seller, outside public exchanges. OTC deals enable major transactions to happen without disrupting market prices.
| Source | BTC Bought/Sold | Date/Period | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy firm | Bought 24,869 BTC | Week of May 17 | Boosted market demand |
| ETFs | Bought 19,000 BTC | April 2026 | Raised fund inflows |
| Old wallets | Sold 38,400 BTC | Until 2026 | Offset supply pressure |
Potential for price surge as supply overhang fades
Alphractal’s research suggests that when the wave of old whale wallet sales subsides, there will be little opposing the surge in institutional demand. On-chain metrics like Liveliness, Coin Days Destroyed, and Days at Profit are expected to move in sync with this trend. Until then, Bitcoin’s price is likely to remain volatile but confined between $78,000 and $82,000.
