Bitcoin’s latest recovery has become a focal point for on-chain analysis firms, who are closely monitoring the situation. Following the lows seen in April, the price climbed rapidly, briefly surpassing $82,000. However, experts argue that this recent surge may not be sustainable, claiming that the momentum was largely fueled by derivatives and futures trading rather than organic growth.
200-day average poses strong resistance
The price of Bitcoin faced rejection at around $82,400, which aligns with its 200-day moving average—a level with a proven record of influencing the broader market. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that a similar pattern emerged in March 2022, when a sharp rally from this technical zone was quickly followed by a prolonged downturn.
Analysts now assert that current market dynamics bear a close resemblance to events two years ago. The inability to break through the 200-day moving average at that time triggered a significant correction, and today’s charts show a pattern that many see as repeating itself.
In the recent spike above $80,000, trading activity in Bitcoin futures was the main driver. But as the price neared resistance, highly leveraged positions began to unwind, signaling that some investors chose to exit markets at the higher levels.
As the intensity in derivatives and futures trading began to weaken, upward momentum faded as well. At the same time, a drop in spot buying interest also emerged. Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—which had previously led the way as net buyers early in May—shifted gears and have recently moved toward selling.
This reversal in ETF demand points to a decline in what has been the most important support channel for Bitcoin’s recovery so far.
Market indicators show signs of weakness
During the most recent rally, the Coinbase Premium Index—which tracks spot buying strength—remained consistently negative. This signals relatively weak demand for spot Bitcoin among both institutional and retail investors in the U.S.
Previous strong bull markets were marked by a persistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Its continued weakness this time around has fueled doubts about the current rally’s staying power.
Data tracked by CryptoQuant reveals another worrying trend: the Bull Score Index has dropped sharply from 40 to 20 over the past several days. A score this low points to highly negative market conditions, levels last seen during the steep declines of February and March 2026.
Currently, many analysts view $70,000 as a critical support level for Bitcoin. This point closely matches the “Realized Price,” a key on-chain metric that historically forms the floor in bear markets by representing the average cost basis of investors.
Mini glossary: Coinbase Premium – An indicator showing the price difference between Bitcoin traded on U.S.-based Coinbase and the global market average. If positive, it indicates stronger buying from U.S. investors; if negative, demand is considered weak.
| Indicator | Recent Period | March 2022 | Feb-Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200-day Average | Rejected | Rejected | – |
| Bull Score Index | 20 | – | 20 |
| Coinbase Premium | Negative | – | – |
| Critical Support Level | $70,000 | – | – |
When all these indicators are considered together, a sense of caution is settling over the crypto market. Declining spot demand, fading futures-driven momentum, and selling pressure from ETFs are raising concerns about greater risks in the weeks ahead.
Whether Bitcoin can hold the $70,000 support will be a decisive factor for its short-term direction and could set the tone for the market moving forward.
