With Bitcoin approaching $80,000 and signs of renewed momentum in the market, economist Henrik Zeberg has issued a noteworthy warning. Zeberg argues that the current upward move in Bitcoin is unlikely to last and that the overall downtrend remains intact. According to him, this rally should be viewed as a brief “B wave” rebound within a broader downward cycle.
Who is Henrik Zeberg?
Henrik Zeberg is known for his expertise in cyclical market analysis and his prominent macroeconomic outlooks. Zeberg is widely followed for his effective use of Elliott Wave theory in financial markets, offering long-term cycle forecasts across different asset classes.
Elliott Wave analysis: Correction wave risk in Bitcoin
According to Zeberg’s May 25 social media post, the recent uptrend in Bitcoin price qualifies as a “B wave” move. In Elliott Wave theory, a B wave refers to a temporary recovery following an initial decline (A wave), but is often followed by the more severe C wave that completes the downward correction.
Henrik Zeberg highlights, “The rally in Bitcoin will most likely be only temporary. Market optimism could become excessive; the real decline has not arrived yet. After this bounce, there may be an opportunity to shift positions.”
Zeberg points out that Bitcoin may have peaked above $110,000 in the recent cycle, and the current rebound could indicate the end of its long-term fifth wave. His chart, which has tracked Bitcoin’s price movements since 2012, suggests that the main market top may already be in place.
Technically, Bitcoin’s recent retreat to the $66,426 Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level established the groundwork for this counter-move, Zeberg notes. While he acknowledges that a brief surge beyond current levels is possible in the short term, he maintains that the overall outlook remains tilted to the downside. He cites $41,492 as a key target should a deeper sell-off occur.
Mini glossary: Elliott Wave theory is a technical analysis approach that asserts market prices move in specific cycles and wave patterns. According to the theory, five principal upward (impulse) waves and three primary downward (corrective) waves can be identified in price trends.
Technical indicators flash stronger warning signals
Zeberg’s analysis of technical momentum indicators underscores growing risks. Most notably, negative divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests momentum is fading even as prices set new highs. Historically, such divergences have preceded major trend reversals in Bitcoin.
Additionally, he notes that the monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is closing in on a “bearish crossover,” similar to the patterns preceded the start of bear markets in 2018 and 2022.
Another analyst, TradingShot, also highlights negative divergence in Bitcoin’s monthly RSI, underscoring insufficient momentum despite surging prices. Technical readings like these may signal that Bitcoin is forming another major top.
Cyclical signals: Potential for pullback toward $50,000
Alternative cycle-based analyses incorporate Bitcoin’s four-year market cycles, halving effects, and Fibonacci time clusters to forecast potential price corrections. These suggest Bitcoin could retreat to around $50,000 in the coming period, as the 350-week moving average has previously marked the bottom of major declines.
| Indicator | Current Status | Previous Similarities |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (Monthly) | Negative divergence present | Near prior market tops |
| MACD (Monthly) | Approaching bearish crossover | Before 2018 and 2022 bear markets |
| Fibonacci Level | $66,426 support | Similar patterns during past corrections |
At the time of writing, Bitcoin remains below its record high above $110,000.
