The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price has caught the attention of investors, as debate grows over whether the rally signals a true bottom in the cryptocurrency’s ongoing market cycle. Benjamin Cowen, founder of the analytics platform Into The Cryptoverse, emphasized that Bitcoin’s price moves are still closely tied to its historical four-year cycle, warning that the latest upswing may not mark the end of the bear market.
Cowen argues the bottom is not in yet
In a recent social media post, Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin has historically followed similar patterns across bull and bear markets, with peaks and troughs aligning with these four-year cycles. He noted that last year’s rally matched the timeline of previous cyclical highs almost perfectly.
According to Cowen, past bear markets in Bitcoin ended around December 2018 and November 2022, which both occurred late in US midterm election years. He believes the current rally remains well within these cyclical boundaries. While BTC touching $82,800 has eased some selling pressure, Cowen cautioned that this does not necessarily mark the start of a fresh long-term uptrend.
“The four-year cycle in Bitcoin remains intact. Price action is progressing with a timing similar to previous years, from peak to bottom. It’s too early to say we’ve reached the end of the bear market,” explained Benjamin Cowen.
Cowen further noted that Bitcoin is encountering resistance near its 200-day simple moving average, a technical level that also triggered comparable rejections in both 2018 and 2022.
Mini glossary: The 200-day simple moving average (200SMA) is a technical indicator calculated by averaging an asset’s closing price over the past 200 days. It is widely used to gauge the long-term trend. When price is rejected at this level, it is considered a significant resistance.
Market remains divided on BTC’s direction
Analysts remain split on Bitcoin’s next move. Cowen maintains a bearish outlook, warning that Bitcoin could drop below $60,000 in June. He argues that, while some traders saw the $60,000 level in February as a potential bottom, the cyclical analysis suggests otherwise.
In contrast, another crypto analyst known as Sykodelic presented a more bullish scenario. Sykodelic predicted that Bitcoin may retest the $90,000 level in June, arguing that the current consolidation could pave the way for a renewed surge.
This divergence in outlook is causing investors to closely watch the 200-day moving average. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, bullish scenarios may gain ground. If not, as Cowen highlights, the market may remain under pressure in line with historical cycles.
| Analyst | Short-term Outlook | Target Levels |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Cowen | Bearish | Below $60,000 |
| Sykodelic | Bullish | Above $90,000 |
Bitcoin cycle debate intensifies
The debate over Bitcoin’s price cycle and recent market activity is being closely followed by institutional investors and large traders. Analysts continue to examine how the price responds at major technical levels and whether the four-year cycle remains a reliable guide for BTC’s path.
“Bitcoin’s rise has led some traders to believe selling pressure is over, but from a cyclical perspective, the ultimate bottom may not yet have been reached,” experts observe.
As June approaches, market watchers are closely monitoring how Bitcoin will react to key support and resistance. The next few weeks could determine whether the bearish or bullish scenarios laid out by Cowen and Sykodelic play out.
