Bitcoin’s price movement in May reignited discussions around the classic “Sell in May and go away” strategy, as the leading cryptocurrency wrapped up the month with a strong rejection near $82,500. The monthly candlestick formed a long wick Shooting Star pattern, an indicator that bullish momentum has faded and selling pressure is intensifying in the market.
Notable selling pressure in May
Midway through the month, Bitcoin surged to as high as $82,500, only to swiftly retrace and end May near $75,650. The sharp pullback after a failed breakout highlighted a major supply zone overhead. The Shooting Star candlestick pattern, recognized by technical analysts, is classically interpreted as a signal that buyers are losing control, while sellers begin to dominate the price action.
Market analysts frequently note that this candlestick formation signals weakening upward attempts and suggests a shift towards more selling-driven trends in the market.
Technical signals were reinforced by blockchain data. On May 8, the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) indicator failed to rise above 1.0. This ratio tracks whether recent buyers are in profit or loss, and remaining below 1 indicated that most short-term holders found themselves underwater.
Glossary: The STH MVRV (Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value) gauges if recent Bitcoin buyers would realize a profit or loss at current prices. A reading above 1 means most are in profit; below 1 suggests losses.
Global demand cools down
Other key metrics indicate a cooling market as well. The “Coinbase Premium” – the price gap between Coinbase and other exchanges, reflecting institutional demand in the US – fell to -0.136, near its lowest in months. This decline points to weakening buying interest from US-based institutional investors.
The cooling sentiment extended to Asia. The Korea Premium index, an indicator of individual investor enthusiasm in South Korea, dropped sharply to -2.1. Despite traditionally high trading activity, Korean retail investors have recently turned cautious. Simultaneous drops in demand in both the East and West put Bitcoin in a rare environment of broad-based market weakness.
Large-scale selling among institutions
The institutional market saw another significant event: On May 26, a $1.3 billion Bitcoin sale occurred on a “dark pool” associated with the IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF. Transactions of this scale, executed away from public order books, signal substantial repositioning by large players without directly affecting the spot price.
Such dark pool sales are typically used by institutional investors to quietly offload significant holdings while minimizing price disruption. The combination of this large sale and weak exchange premiums suggest that professional investors are moving to reduce risk by quietly liquidating positions.
For Bitcoin holders, $75,400 has emerged as a crucial support level. This figure represents the first major support wall on the Unspent Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, a tool that analyzes at which price points Bitcoin remains unmoved. If Bitcoin falls below this threshold, analysts warn of possible rapid declines towards the $70,500 range.
Glossary: The URPD (Unspent Realized Price Distribution) shows at what price levels Bitcoin was last moved on-chain and helps identify areas of strong support or resistance in the market.
| Indicator | Value/Level | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Coinbase Premium | -0.136 | Low institutional interest in the US |
| Korea Premium | -2.1 | Weak demand in Korea |
| STH MVRV | Below 1 | Short-term holders at a loss |
| Dark Pool Sale | $1.3 billion | Institutional selling pressure |
| Key Support (URPD) | $75,400 | Break could target $70,500 |
