After nearly four months of stagnation in the crypto market, a major price swing could be just around the corner. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has drawn attention to Bitcoin’s current tight trading range, predicting an imminent and significant breakout accompanied by heavy trading volume. According to his assessment, the scale of Bitcoin’s potential short-term move could be anywhere from 10 to 20 percent.
Historic low in volatility
Bitcoin’s price has been locked in an unusually narrow band for 114 consecutive days now, a phenomenon not seen since February 2026. During this period, Bitcoin’s volatility indicator has plunged to 0.90, marking a fresh multi-month low. The crypto market, known for its wild price swings, has remained eerily calm—something industry experts find striking and increasingly unsustainable.
As Maartunn points out, periods of compressed volatility like this one have often been precursors to sharp and decisive price explosions, with historical data supporting this pattern.
Maartunn insists that no one should be surprised if Bitcoin experiences a move between 10 and 20 percent in the short run.
Tightening in liquid supply
One of the critical factors at play right now is the plunge in trading volumes across major crypto exchanges. At the same time, long-term investors are increasingly pulling their Bitcoin off exchanges and moving assets into their own wallets, significantly shrinking the available liquid supply on the market.
Glossary: A non-custodial wallet is a type of crypto wallet where users retain full control of their private keys, with no access by brokers or platforms. This ensures users have complete ownership over their assets.
With fewer Bitcoins available for sale on exchanges, there is now considerably less liquidity for buyers and sellers to transact. Maartunn notes that in this kind of environment, any significant external trigger—such as a report from the FED or a new wave of institutional buying—can send prices swinging much more rapidly.
Clear price scenarios emerge
Maartunn highlights two clear scenarios. Should Bitcoin’s price remain above $78,200, a wave of short seller liquidations could force the price cover zone up toward $81,500–$88,000. On the other hand, if the price dips below $72,000, leveraged positions could be swept out, accelerating a drop to $65,000 and even potentially as low as $58,800.
| Scenario | Critical Level | Target Range |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout upward | Above $78,200 | $81,500 – $88,000 |
| Breakdown downward | Below $72,000 | $65,000 – $58,800 |
According to the analyst, this imminent and powerful price move could serve as the defining trend-setter for Bitcoin’s price action throughout the summer. After months of sideways trading, the market may be on the verge of a dramatic break from its current range, and traders are watching closely for the first signs of a direction.
