BTC could bottom at $53,600 as demand slumps

According to a recent assessment by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s $53,600 level has emerged as a potential floor for the asset. The analytics firm points out that this price aligns with Bitcoin’s realized price, which reflects the aggregated cost basis across the network. However, they also note that key demand indicators remain weak, with no clear signals yet of a sustained recovery.

Focus returns to realized price

CryptoQuant has calculated Bitcoin’s realized price at $53,600, suggesting this could mark a possible low. Research director Julio Moreno notes that, in previous bear markets, Bitcoin has historically found a floor either near this metric or briefly below it before rebounding.

Historically, this level can be seen as a region confirming a bottom. Still, with demand currently weak, the likelihood of a true bottom here remains uncertain for now.

For context, the term “realized price” refers to the average cost at which all circulating Bitcoin were last moved on-chain. Unlike market value, it’s used to track the collective cost basis for investors.

Moreno underlined there is no guarantee that prices will reach $53,600. Last week, Bitcoin fell as low as roughly $59,000 before recovering to around $62,150. Despite the decline, BTC remains about 9 percent above the $53,600 realized price threshold.

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Demand metrics suggest ongoing weakness

CryptoQuant data shows that total Bitcoin demand dropped by 652,000 BTC last week, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022. This metric considers both speculative activity in the derivatives market and visible demand on spot exchanges.

According to the report, both futures-driven interest and spot demand weakened as Bitcoin sank below $60,000. Liquidations of long positions accelerated, while spot selling picked up pace. Furthermore, annualized visible demand growth entered negative territory, falling below its moving average. Moreno pointed to this as the sharpest downturn since February 2024.

Today, the number of buyers appears lower compared to a year ago. This weakens the demand foundation needed for a price rebound to persist.

ETF flows and realized losses monitored

Institutional appetite has also cooled. Thirty-day ETF inflows have shrunk by 74,000 BTC, marking the weakest monthly pace since US spot Bitcoin ETFs went live in January 2024. The report observes that, amid position trimming, ETFs have actually contributed to an increase in net supply.

Nonetheless, realized losses have yet to signal capitulation. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin investors recorded aggregate losses of 187,000 BTC. By comparison, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in February 2026, total realized losses reached 400,000 BTC, while the market low in November 2022 saw this figure spike to 1.2 million BTC.

Moreno highlighted that, at the $59,000 level, a significant portion of investors are still not underwater, and thus the classic signs of deep capitulation have not yet appeared. He noted that major market bottoms tend to be preceded by heavy sell-offs and exhausted sellers. Current data suggests $53,600 may serve as a valuation baseline, but a constructive demand recovery remains absent for any new sustained rally.