XRP has been closely tracked with two separate bearish patterns on its short-term charts since early June. Both a head and shoulders formation as well as a bear flag have appeared on the four-hour timeframe, strengthening scenarios in which the price could fall below the psychological 1 dollar mark.
Two short term bearish signals converge
Since June 5th, analysts have observed a head and shoulders pattern forming in the XRP price structure. In this particular formation, the middle peak rises above the shoulders, and if the supporting neckline breaks, the technical target points downward. As of Thursday, XRP had formed its right shoulder and was at risk of correcting down to the neckline support near 1.09 dollars in the initial phase.
If XRP decisively breaks below the neckline at 1.09 dollars, the technical target for the head and shoulders pattern projects a move down to approximately 0.99 dollars.
According to these calculations, the first major bearish target for June stands at 0.99 dollars—a drop of about 10% from current levels. Conversely, if the price reclaims the right shoulder peak around 1.12 dollars and surpasses the 20-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart, this setup could be invalidated in the near term.
Mini glossary: MVRV is an indicator comparing a crypto asset’s market value to its average cost based on the last time it moved on-chain. It offers a general sense of whether investors are sitting on paper gains or losses.
Should this bullish scenario play out, XRP could aim as high as the 50-period exponential moving average at the 1.15 dollar region—a potential 4.5% gain above current prices.
Bear flag and on-chain data support ongoing pressure
A second prominent pattern on the four-hour chart is the bear flag. After a sharp decline, XRP has traded within an ascending channel—often viewed as a pause that precedes a continuation of the previous downward move. By Thursday, XRP tested the lower trendline near 1.10 dollars; analysts note that a firm four-hour close below this level could confirm the breakdown.
A confirmed close below 1.10 dollars in the bear flag pattern could open the door to further losses, potentially targeting the 0.94 dollar level for XRP.
The technical target for this setup is 0.94 dollars, signaling a potential 15% decrease from current price levels. Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) hovering at 43 indicates weak momentum, with the reading below the neutral 50 threshold underscoring limited appetite from buyers.
However, any rebound that lifts the price above 1.12 dollars could weaken this bearish structure. A decisive break above the key resistance at 1.15 dollars—corresponding to the 50-period moving average—may postpone selling pressure and allow for a move toward the upper trendline between 1.18 and 1.20 dollars.
MVRV bands highlight 0.96 dollars as a further risk zone
On-chain analysis using MVRV price bands indicates that downside risk remains open for XRP. The MVRV compares current market price to the average cost at which coins last moved on-chain: approaching upper bands signals overheating, while falling to lower bands can mean weak demand, market stress, or investor capitulation.
Analysts remind that the lower green band historically acted as a strong magnet for XRP—during major declines in 2018, 2020, and 2022, the price has hit or briefly dipped below this area. If a similar pattern repeats, the next significant target could be the lower green band near 0.96 dollars, which stands about 13% below current price levels.
