Ethereum’s price stabilized around $1,615 on Wednesday, posting a daily loss of more than 3%. Market sentiment remained subdued, with both technical indicators and capital flows suggesting ongoing downward pressure. However, major institutional investors continued to accumulate ETH, adding complexity to the market outlook.
Downside technical risks come into focus
On-chain data currently puts Ethereum’s realized price lower band at around $1,150. In previous bear cycles, such as those in 2018 and 2022, Ethereum established its market bottom near this threshold. If history repeats itself, a further decline of around 30% from current levels could be possible.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows noted that selling pressure above $1,700 has repeatedly thwarted attempts at a price recovery. He emphasized that unless strong spot demand pushes the price above this resistance and sustains it, the likelihood of testing lower price levels will increase.
Ted Pillows explained that sellers remain active above $1,700 in Ethereum, capping upward momentum and increasing the risk of new lows in the absence of robust spot demand.
Price action shows ETH trading below its 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages, which are all clustered between $1,740 and $2,050. The relative strength index stands at approximately 34, suggesting the asset is approaching oversold territory, even though a definitive trend reversal has yet to emerge.
If the selling trend persists, the first support level is seen at $1,611, followed by $1,524 and then $1,404. Should the price fall below $1,404, a move toward the $1,156 zone could come into play.
Institutional buying continues as exchange flows increase
ETH inflows to exchanges have steadily increased over the past two weeks. Such movements are typically interpreted as preparations for selling, since assets are brought onto trading platforms. During the same period, US-listed spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows, with $82.3 million exiting on Tuesday alone. Total withdrawals in June reached $346.39 million, following $540.88 million pulled in May.
Despite the negative price trend, significant institutional buying activity persisted. Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), a leading venture capital firm known for its focus on technology and digital assets, drew attention when one of its wallets withdrew 25,560 ETH from Binance on June 23, a transaction valued at roughly $42.62 million.
On the same day, Bitmine, linked to Tom Lee, acquired 35,138 ETH for about $58.65 million. The company had also reportedly spent $92 million the previous week for 52,203 ETH.
Although selling pressure dominated the market, June 23 saw notable developments: both a16z’s wallet withdrew from Binance and Bitmine made a multimillion-dollar ETH purchase.
Accumulation trend holds steady among major wallets
According to Santiment data, the largest wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ETH increased their aggregate holdings to approximately 135.2 million ETH. Mid-sized investor groups have also been accumulating since the end of May.
Conversely, some addresses controlling between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH, as well as those with 100,000 to 1 million ETH, recorded declines. This suggests a redistribution and repositioning across different wallet categories, rather than broad-based liquidation.
