With Bitcoin trading around $64,000, the current market landscape has become more complex than in previous cycles. Despite a 50% drop from its all-time high, this correction has been milder compared to previous steep downturns. At the same time, the 2025 rally failed to deliver the broad-based momentum seen in earlier bull markets.
Views diverge after 2025 rally
The recent 2025 rally was fueled by flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, post-halving momentum, and revived institutional demand. During this surge, Bitcoin reached a new peak above $126,000 in October 2025. However, following that high, prices began to retreat, leaving analysts sharply divided about the path forward.
Some large institutions, including Standard Chartered and similar research desks, suggest the market may have already found its cycle low last month. They argue that structural demand driven by ETFs, as well as Bitcoin purchases by companies holding it on their balance sheets and improved long-term capital inflows, make a deeper pullback less likely.
According to Standard Chartered and like-minded firms, stronger ETF demand and increased institutional capital flows could help prevent a deeper retracement in Bitcoin.
On the other hand, more cautious analysts believe the bear market may be in its final stages, but the absolute bottom has yet to be confirmed. Galaxy Research, a noted crypto and digital asset analytics firm, observed in June that traditional cycle indicators have not yet fully reset, leaving room for further downside.
Macro conditions and liquidity remain key drivers
Russell Thomson, investment director at Hilbert Capital, stated that Bitcoin is still in a downward phase and could test lower lows before establishing a true bottom. In Thomson’s view, global macro conditions and liquidity are shaping the market far more than crypto-specific signals right now.
Thomson sees the $56,000 to $52,000 range as the next likely test for Bitcoin, with the possibility of a broader decline toward $40,000 to $45,000—levels reminiscent of the consolidation phases observed at the start of 2024. He projects a potential bottom forming around October 2026, but notes this could come sooner if the US Federal Reserve opts for rate cuts or if the CLARITY Act, a digital asset regulatory proposal, is enacted.
Mini glossary: The CLARITY Act is a US legislative initiative that aims to clarify which agencies will oversee digital assets and to define which assets are classified as commodities or securities.
Citi analysts on July 1 also lowered their 12 month price target for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000. The bank highlighted that closer ties with traditional financial markets have heightened Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets and global liquidity, rather than reducing volatility as some had hoped.
| Institution or Individual | Outlook | Key Level |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Thomson | Sees the downtrend continuing | $56,000 to $52,000, then $40,000 to $45,000 |
| Citibank | Underscores growing impact of macro conditions | 12 month target $82,000 |
| Galaxy Research | Does not rule out further losses | $40,000 to $46,000 |
Focus shifts from bottom-hunting to competition for capital
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, maintains a constructive but cautious tone. According to Dragosch, current conditions mirror the late stage of a bear market—with several indicators suggesting the downward pressure is easing. He points to investor sentiment, which is now as low as it was after the collapse of FTX in 2022, a typical sign of seller exhaustion.
Dragosch stresses that while the absolute bottom is not yet guaranteed, the market appears much closer to it, and no single indicator can reliably pinpoint the cycle low.
Bitunix analyst Dean Chen also believes the decline in Bitcoin continues, but now centers more on global capital competition than on crypto market dynamics. Chen notes that the 2024 approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has cemented substantial institutional demand, but at the same time, Bitcoin is now vying for capital with AI investments and equities, two dominant themes in today’s markets.
From Chen’s perspective, the key question is not when Bitcoin will bottom, but when it will regain its status as the top target for global risk capital. He also observes that the influence of derivatives markets on Bitcoin price formation has grown significantly, with funding rates and open interest data now playing a greater role in driving short-term volatility. In this context, analysts believe Bitcoin may form a structurally extended bottom rather than a sharp V-shaped reversal.
