Bitcoin continued to rebound after recent declines, with its price reaching $64,294 and showing modest gains over the past 24 hours. Trading volume stood at $20.37 billion, while Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization held at $1.29 trillion. Despite ongoing market uncertainty, the cryptocurrency registered a 0.69% increase within the last 24 hours, reflecting persisting buyer interest.
On-chain indicators hold back bullish momentum
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated on July 11, 2026, that three key on-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin has not yet entered a full bullish cycle. Martinez highlighted the aSOPR – 1 (x10), Puell Multiple – 1, and Reserve Risk Multiple – 1, all of which remain below the neutral threshold of zero. These indicators are utilized to track investor behavior, mining sector health, and trader confidence across the Bitcoin network.
Each of these metrics remaining in negative territory suggests the extended accumulation phase for Bitcoin is ongoing. In such periods, market participants are typically seen selling at a loss, miners report lower profitability, and overall long-term optimism is muted.
Martinez identified the aSOPR indicator as the first signal to watch for a potential market reversal. When aSOPR crosses above zero, followed by similar moves in the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple, this could mark the official onset of a fresh bull run.
Martinez noted that confirmation of bullish momentum would be signaled once all three on-chain indicators break above zero, marking the end of the accumulation phase and the probable start of a new Bitcoin uptrend.
While the price has climbed from its recent lows, these on-chain signals have not yet confirmed the beginning of a sustained upward trend for Bitcoin.
Mini dictionary: aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures whether spent outputs are in profit or loss, indicating if current holders are selling at a gain or a loss. The Puell Multiple analyzes miner revenue compared to historical averages, and Reserve Risk evaluates the confidence of long-term holders relative to price.
Short-term technicals show signs of recovery
Recent short-term technical analysis paints a more positive scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 53.93, with its moving average now at 45.23. Since the RSI sits above the neutral 50 mark yet remains below the overbought zone, this suggests building buying pressure without signs of overheating.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also delivered a bullish signal. The MACD value of -287.91 has crossed above its signal line at -900.37, while the histogram transitioned into positive territory at 612.46, reinforcing the notion of growing upward momentum.
Should Bitcoin hold above its current support levels, analysts believe further short-term gains are possible. However, the mixed outlook from long-term on-chain data and short-term technical indicators keeps the broader market cautious.
| Metric | Current Value | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Price | $64,294 | Rising | Recovery from lows |
| aSOPR – 1 (x10) | Below 0 | Negative | Profit-taking absent |
| Puell Multiple – 1 | Below 0 | Negative | Miner revenues low |
| Reserve Risk Multiple – 1 | Below 0 | Negative | Low long-term confidence |
| RSI | 53.93 | Above neutral | Strength returning |
| MACD Histogram | 612.46 | Positive | Bullish crossover |
Awaiting a confirmed breakout
Short-term traders may interpret these technical signals as encouraging, while those focused on long-term cycles watch the on-chain metrics for a definitive breakout above zero.
Experts point out that interim rallies can occur during accumulation, making it crucial for investors to monitor both types of indicators. For sustained confidence in a new bull cycle, markets will look for all three on-chain metrics to confirm a shift by crossing above zero.
Until that alignment takes place, both investors and analysts maintain a cautious outlook, balancing recent positive signals against lingering uncertainty in the broader crypto market.
