Bitcoin‘s ongoing bear market has seen more than 50% of its circulating supply held at a loss, according to onchain data analyzed by K33 Research. The company, a leading digital assets research provider, highlighted this significant shift in its H1 2026 Round-Up, noting that this metric has reached a level typically associated with approaching macro bottoms in previous cycles.
Onchain signals point to historic bear-market phase
The supply in loss metric, which shows how much Bitcoin is held at a price below its acquisition cost, has passed the 50% threshold for the first time in this bear market. On June 5, this figure officially crossed the key level, signaling what analysts suggest is a critical phase in the bear market cycle.
Historical data from K33 Research indicates that when more than half of the BTC supply is under water, a macro bottom has consistently formed within the following 101 days. The timeframes varied in past cycles: 13 days in 2022, 23 days in 2018, and 101 days in 2014.
In the current cycle, 42 days have already passed since the 50% mark was reached, making this the second-longest countdown period on record for Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric.
Mini dictionary: K33 Research is a prominent digital asset analytics firm known for onchain and market research covering cryptocurrencies and related financial products.
| Bear Market | Days to Bottom after 50% Supply in Loss |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 101 |
| 2018 | 23 |
| 2022 | 13 |
| 2026 | 42 (so far) |
Returns in the year following the 50% supply in loss event “tend to be very solid,” as highlighted in the K33 report, reflecting historically strong recoveries after such signals appear onchain.
Cost-basis models and investor sentiment
Supplementary data from CryptoQuant, an onchain analytics platform, indicates that supply in loss was at 46% as of July 17. Earlier this month, CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. estimated that a potential bottom could still be two months away, based on the current trajectory.
Separate insights from CryptoQuant focused on Bitcoin’s realized cap variance (RCV) model, which distinguishes swings between the realized cap and the market cap. As described by contributor Crazzyblockk, this model captures how strongly compressed or stretched investor cost basis is compared to Bitcoin’s present valuation.
Mini dictionary: The realized cap variance (RCV) model measures the difference between the realized capitalization and market capitalization of Bitcoin, offering insights into shifts in investor cost basis and market sentiment across market cycles.
Currently, the standardized Z-score for RCV is at -2.35, which places it within the lowest six percent of all historical observations for this metric. This rare reading points to what CryptoQuant analysts describe as the final stages of the bear market.
Historical stretches where RCV’s Z-score remained below -2.0, such as late 2018, mid-2022, and early 2015, have preceded twelve-month forward returns exceeding 75%.
Signs of shifting market sentiment
In parallel, analysts suggest that the emotional “bull market premium” has faded, setting the stage for a transition out of the current downturn. The convergence of metrics such as supply in loss and depressed RCV scores has previously set the foundation for robust market recoveries.
As Bitcoin continues to test the patience of long-term holders, historical patterns suggest that recovery phases often begin soon after these extended bear-market periods, provided onchain metrics maintain their established track records.
