Ethereum is showing signs of recovery after enduring nearly six months of intense selling pressure, according to recent on-chain data. Despite significant losses for many holders, the current market situation could potentially set the stage for a new bullish phase.
Six months of capitulation
Swissblock, a blockchain analytics provider, reported that Ethereum’s supply in loss has dominated since late January, with the majority of tokens held at a loss rather than at a profit. The “Supply in Profit/Loss” model shows that this drawn-out period of capitulation has resulted in about 45.7 million ETH being underwater compared to 31.6 million ETH held at a gain.
A brief recovery between April and May did shift some of the supply back toward breakeven, but sellers quickly took control again, sparking another wave of unrealized losses across the network. Analysts note that the extended pressure is reflected in the average breakeven price, which has increased to $1,880. Market observers point out that such periods, where most investors are at a loss, often precede major market bottoms.
During the recent recovery, Ethereum’s average breakeven price rose to $1,880, marking a key shift after months of losses and indicating growing buyer support at these levels.
Mini dictionary: Swissblock is an analytics firm specializing in providing blockchain and cryptocurrency market data, including on-chain indicators and supply analytics for major assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Technical resistance levels in focus
Ethereum’s price staged a strong comeback from its June low, rebounding from near $1,500 and reclaiming both the 26-day and 50-day moving averages. As of the latest data, ETH is trading close to $1,890, supported by these shorter-term trend indicators. This suggests that buyers have regained some control over the market’s intermediate trend.
However, Ethereum faces a significant technical barrier near $1,935, where the declining 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) has blocked several prior rally attempts. A decisive close above this level could not only reinforce the bullish trend but also refocus market attention on the psychological $2,000 mark.
| Moving Average | Status | Price Level |
|---|---|---|
| 26-day MA | Support | $1,890 |
| 50-day MA | Support | $1,890 |
| 100-day EMA | Resistance | $1,935 |
Investor sentiment and accumulation
Positive momentum remains despite recent price consolidation. The relative strength index (RSI) currently ranges between 58 and 60, signaling steady buying demand without entering overbought conditions. Market watchers suggest that this leaves room for continued gains if broader conditions remain supportive.
Historically, extended periods in which most Ethereum holders are at a loss tend to lead to increased accumulation, as longer-term investors acquire more ETH at reduced prices. Meanwhile, short-term or weaker holders often exit the market. Data indicates this accumulation phase may be resuming as the network recovers from its prolonged slump.
Long-term investors appear to be absorbing available supply, while those unable to withstand recent losses are leaving the market.
If Ethereum successfully breaks above the $1,935 resistance and more of the circulating supply returns to profit, the prolonged period of capitulation could ultimately mark the onset of a significant upward move. However, the process is ongoing, and the full effects of the prior downturn have yet to fully dissipate.
