Bitcoin’s network activity has dropped close to levels not seen since the 2018–2019 bear market, according to data reviewed by CryptoQuant analyst thechessONCHAIN, but signs of a recovery have now begun to emerge.
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On July 19, 2026, Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average for active addresses declined to 609,688. Meanwhile, the 100-day average reached a low of 621,957 on July 27. These figures are comparable to the lowest points seen at 570,710 in July 2018 and 605,433 in January 2019.
Active addresses reflect the number of unique Bitcoin wallets that transmit or receive BTC daily, although a single user may control multiple accounts. Analysts frequently use moving averages to reduce the effects of daily fluctuations and reveal long-term network patterns.
A comparison with prior cycles shows that, when Bitcoin found its low at $3,206 on December 14, 2018, both the 30-day and 100-day moving averages for active addresses remained above the most recent lows, at 625,967 and 632,754 respectively.
ThechessONCHAIN noted the timing difference between lows in network activity and price. The 30-day average of active addresses reached its lowest point 166 days prior to Bitcoin’s 2018 price bottom, while the 100-day average hit its minimum 44 days after the bottom.
The analyst also pointed out that similarly low levels of address activity have appeared during bitcoin bull markets, such as during 2016–2017, highlighting that low activity alone does not reliably indicate a market bottom or predict a price reversal.
Similar address activity levels occurred during the 2016–2017 bull market period, suggesting that a drop in activity alone cannot define either a bear-market bottom or an imminent turnaround in price trends.
Given this history, analysts consider these metrics as context for understanding the market cycle, not as direct buy or sell signals.
Signs of Network Recovery
Recent trends suggest conditions may be shifting. Bitcoin reached a short-term low of $58,535 on June 30, 2026. The troughs in the 30-day and 100-day address averages followed 19 and 27 days later, respectively. Since then, both indicators have started rising, with the 30-day average climbing to 664,764 and the 100-day reaching 640,603 as of August 8.
ThechessONCHAIN described these simultaneous recoveries as a “joint recovery” pattern, where Bitcoin’s price remains above its recent low and network activity averages rebound beyond their July bottoms.
This combination could signal a bottoming phase, though the analyst stressed that historical data does not prove a direct link between rising network activity and a definite price floor in Bitcoin.
| Date/Point | 30-day Avg. Addresses | 100-day Avg. Addresses | Bitcoin Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 19, 2026 (recent low) | 609,688 | — | — |
| July 27, 2026 (recent low) | — | 621,957 | — |
| July 2018 (historical low) | 570,710 | — | — |
| January 2019 (historical low) | — | 605,433 | — |
| December 14, 2018 (price low) | 625,967 | 632,754 | $3,206 |
| June 30, 2026 (recent price low) | — | — | $58,535 |
| August 8, 2026 (follow-up) | 664,764 | 640,603 | — |
According to the analyst, three benchmarks remain crucial in this cycle: 609,688 for the 30-day activity average, 621,957 for the 100-day average, and the June 30 Bitcoin price low of $58,535. If either moving average falls below its respective July low, that could weaken confidence in a sustained recovery. Conversely, a prolonged drop below $58,535 would challenge the notion of a price bottom in place.
ThechessONCHAIN’s analysis suggests growing network activity may indicate stabilization in Bitcoin’s price, but stops short of presenting this pattern as a stand-alone trading signal.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant is a blockchain analytics platform that provides on-chain data, metrics, and market insights for cryptocurrencies, widely used by traders and institutional investors for evaluating network health and trading signals.
