Bitcoin has dropped sharply from its peak of approximately $126,080 in October, recently trading in the low $60,000s. This nearly 50% decline has unsettled investors, but some analysts believe this movement remains in line with Bitcoin’s historical patterns.
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AAPLMarket cycles in focus
Asset manager VanEck reported on Thursday that Bitcoin’s recent slide closely follows its established four-year halving cycle. During each halving, mining rewards are cut in half, reducing the number of new coins entering circulation and often triggering a downtrend in price. VanEck described this cycle as a recurring aspect of Bitcoin’s broader market structure, not an unusual event.
The company used its GEO framework—which considers Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity—to assess current conditions. According to VanEck, two out of the three GEO signals currently indicate neutral market sentiment, while ecosystem leverage shows signs of improvement. The firm suggested these readings could indicate an early phase of bottoming out and implied that it may be a suitable period for investors to consider scaling into new positions.
Mini dictionary: VanEck is a global asset management firm known for its research on digital assets, ETFs, and commodity investments. Its GEO framework is used to evaluate crypto market conditions by assessing liquidity, leverage, and on-chain activity.
On-chain data signals from long-term holders
Blockchain analytics provider CryptoQuant offered a separate analysis using on-chain data. The firm emphasized that long-term Bitcoin holders, regarded as some of the most resilient participants in the market, are currently experiencing greater unrealized losses than the general market. This is based on the adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which tracks the profitability of coin holders compared to the price at which they acquired their assets.
Analyst MorenoDV noted that this same pattern—where long-term holders endure larger losses—has appeared at every major market bottom for Bitcoin in previous cycles.
MorenoDV explained that each time long-term holders faced outsized losses relative to other market participants, the market was either approaching or at the cycle’s lowest price level.
Despite these historical signals, CryptoQuant cautioned investors against calling a definitive bottom at this stage. In past bear cycles, the NUPL metric for long-term holders dropped to even more negative levels before the market reversed, indicating that another sharp sell-off could still occur if sentiment deteriorates further.
The analytics firm also suggested that if institutional demand strengthens and the holder base demonstrates greater resilience, Bitcoin might avoid the severe capitulation events that have defined earlier downturns.
Comparing signals with previous cycle lows
Both VanEck and CryptoQuant point out that, although the market appears strained when compared to historical benchmarks, it has not reached the extremes typically associated with lasting cycle bottoms. The data implies that while Bitcoin is showing some early signs of stabilizing, risks of a final, sharp correction remain if the historical patterns continue as before.
| Metric | Current Cycle | Previous Cycle Bottom |
|---|---|---|
| Price drop from peak | ~50% | 70%–85% |
| NUPL (Long-term holders) | Negative, but not extreme | Deep negative zones |
| Market sentiment (VanEck GEO) | Neutral to constructive | Deeply negative |
Ultimately, current market indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s present decline is consistent with patterns seen in earlier cycles. Analysts remain watchful for further developments as the market seeks new signs of stabilization.
