As anticipation builds for the next Bitcoin halving, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has sparked renewed debate over the true scarcity of Bitcoin, arguing that the circulating supply may be smaller than many in the market realize.
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AAPLDeflationary nature of Bitcoin underlined
Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, is the founder of Binance, one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchanges. In a post published earlier today, he described Bitcoin as a deflationary asset and questioned the widely held assumptions regarding its supply.
CZ pointed out that while over 20.07 million Bitcoin have been mined as of August 2026, this number does not fully represent the coins truly available for trading or investment. With Bitcoin’s capped supply set at 21 million, just 4.4% of new coins remain to be mined before the protocol’s limit is reached.
Lost and inaccessible Bitcoin reduce actual supply
Despite the significant number of mined Bitcoin, CZ cautioned that the real quantity circulating in the market could be much lower. He estimated that between 10% and 20% of the mined coins may be permanently inaccessible, due to lost private keys or abandoned wallets.
Tokens in this category are effectively removed from circulation, as there is no way for owners—or anyone else—to retrieve them. Cases of lost Bitcoin include assets left in wallets whose credentials are forgotten or lost, and coins sent to invalid addresses.
As CZ explained, this phenomenon strengthens Bitcoin’s scarcity beyond the already hard cap of 21 million, as the operational supply available to crypto market participants narrows even further.
Mini dictionary: Private key, a unique cryptographic code that enables users to access and manage their cryptocurrency holdings. Losing the private key means the associated funds become irrecoverable, rendering the coins effectively unusable.
Impact on Bitcoin’s market dynamics
The reduced available supply due to lost or inaccessible coins could influence market liquidity and price behavior, particularly as the next halving approaches and additional new supply entering circulation slows.
CZ’s remarks highlight the potential for even smaller quantities of Bitcoin to be available for buying, selling, or transferring than what aggregate mined figures suggest.
| Metric | Amount |
|---|---|
| Total possible Bitcoin supply | 21 million |
| Bitcoin mined as of August 2026 | 20.07 million |
| Unmined Bitcoin (remaining) | 4.4% of total supply |
| Estimated lost/inaccessible Bitcoin | 10%–20% of mined supply |
The number of Bitcoin that can realistically be bought, sold, or moved by users may be much lower than the figure of 20.07 million, as a significant portion is lost or inaccessible due to forgotten private keys or abandoned wallets.
