Bitcoin’s typically volatile price action has entered an unusually calm phase, with realized volatility hitting one of the lowest points in years despite the asset deep in a bear market.
Volatility drops as trading activity slows
A report by global investment manager VanEck revealed that bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2% annualized in August, down from 30.4% a month ago. This level is significantly below the digital asset’s long-term average of roughly 80%.
For most of July, bitcoin’s price fluctuated within a narrow range of $62,265 to $66,509, after rebounding from a June low near $58,500. Such tight price bands are atypical for bitcoin, which is widely recognized for its dramatic daily market swings.
VanEck emphasized that “for an asset known for double-digit daily swings, this is an unusually still market.”
According to the report, spot trading volume over the past 30 days dropped 27% compared to the previous month, placing it in just the 10th percentile of bitcoin’s historical volume data.
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AAPLAnalysts at VanEck noted that the slowdown in trading is deeper than the summer lulls experienced in either 2024 or 2025, with volumes now echoing the lows seen during the 2023 bear market.
Long-term holders and market structure
Alongside declining volatility and volumes, the supply held by long-term investors has also started to shrink. VanEck reported that bitcoin held for over a year fell by approximately 356,000 BTC, or 2.9%, during the month. This movement pushed the share of coins held by long-term holders below 60% of total supply for the first time in several months.
The decrease was particularly noticeable among holders who had owned their coins for one to three years, while those holding coins for more than a decade showed little activity, with holdings down just 0.1% in the same period.
Currently, bitcoin trades around 9% below its 200-day moving average, which is less of a discount than the 14% observed a month earlier. However, the asset remains roughly 49% below its all-time high.
| Indicator | Current Value | Change/Reference |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day volatility (annualized) | 27.2% | Down from 30.4% last month |
| Spot volume (30 days) | -27% | vs. previous month |
| Price vs. 200-day MA | -9% | Less than 14% last month |
| Price vs. all-time high | -49% | |
| Long-term holder supply | Below 60% | Down 356,000 BTC |
Mini dictionary: VanEck is a New York-based global asset manager recognized for its expertise in ETFs and digital asset research.
Market cycle and analyst outlook
VanEck’s analysis highlights that 8 out of 12 internal market “capitulation signals” are currently flashing, which the firm associates with the later stages of bitcoin’s typical four-year boom-and-bust cycle.
Based on patterns seen in past cycles, VanEck sees a possible price bottom forming between September and November. However, the firm warned that while historical signal clusters sometimes precede bottoms, the results are mixed and only reveal a pronounced advantage for a one-year holding period.
VanEck researchers observed that “the historical record of returns following similar signal clusters is mixed and only shows a clear edge over a full one-year horizon.”
For now, bitcoin’s market appears locked in a rare period of stillness, with both volatility and trading activity well below historical norms, while long-term holders are showing tentative signs of distribution as the cycle progresses.
