VanEck, a leading investment manager specializing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital assets, reported that Bitcoin may be approaching the end of its current market correction. The firm stated that eight out of twelve key capitulation signals have been triggered, indicating that the worst of the downtrend could soon subside.
Long-term holders reduce positions
According to VanEck, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold a combined total of 356,000 BTC over the past month. This significant wave of liquidations has not resulted in further sharp declines for the cryptocurrency. Instead, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable, suggesting seller exhaustion might be setting in.
VanEck identified this combination of heavy selling and price resilience as a potential sign that Bitcoin is nearing the bottom of its correction cycle. Market observers are watching closely to see if further capitulation signals will surface or whether sentiment will turn bullish in the coming weeks.
Long-term holders offloaded 356,000 BTC in the last month, but Bitcoin held steady, indicating a possible shift in market dynamics as eight out of twelve capitulation indicators have now been met.
The firm’s analysis is based on on-chain data and market cycle indicators, which track investor behavior and measure the intensity of selloffs. These signals are often considered key metrics in assessing Bitcoin’s recovery prospects.
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AAPLMini dictionary: Capitulation signals are indicators that suggest widespread selling and loss realization among holders, often occurring near market bottoms.
Market cycles and future projections
Bitcoin previously reached a record high of $126,080 in October 2025, followed by a notable decline earlier this year. Analysts attribute this reversal to a mix of macroeconomic factors, such as global uncertainty and elevated geopolitical tensions. During this period, investors shifted from riskier assets to what they considered safer stores of value, including gold.
A significant aspect discussed by VanEck is Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle. Historically, Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs in 2017, 2021, and 2025, aligning with its halving schedule. Many experts expect this pattern to persist, with the next major rally potentially beginning in 2027 and a new high possibly reached in 2029.
| Year | All-Time High |
|---|---|
| 2017 | $19,783 |
| 2021 | $68,789 |
| 2025 | $126,080 |
Despite the recent selloff, historical trends suggest that the end of the current decline could pave the way for recovery if the cycle repeats.
Macroeconomic factors and Fed policy
Inflation dynamics are also playing a central role in shaping Bitcoin’s price action. The US Consumer Price Index has decreased in recent months, raising speculation about potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve if inflation approaches its 2% target.
Such developments could stimulate a renewed risk appetite, making assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors seeking higher returns. However, many participants remain cautious, awaiting clear signals from both macroeconomic indicators and crypto market cycles.
Bitcoin could benefit if inflation drops and the Federal Reserve eases policy, prompting increased capital flows into higher-risk assets.
The interplay between long-term holder behavior, historical cycles, and macroeconomic trends will likely determine Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead.
