XRP may be entering a critical phase against Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency market approaches the fourth quarter of 2026. Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has highlighted historical data indicating that XRP has tended to deliver notably strong performance relative to Bitcoin during key months in the final quarter, despite regular setbacks in October.
XRP’s Seasonal Performance Against Bitcoin
Egrag Crypto, a market analyst recognized for his chart-based approach to digital assets, presented an evaluation of the historical monthly performance of the XRP/BTC pair. His analysis focuses on XRP’s value in relation to Bitcoin, aiming to inform investors about possible capital flows between these two major cryptocurrencies during different periods of the year.
He reported that, on average, XRP outperformed Bitcoin by 17.0% in September. In contrast, October registered an average decline of 19.6%. November demonstrated a sharp rebound with an average gain of 30.5%, while December saw the strongest relative performance with XRP outperforming Bitcoin by 44.1% on average.
| Month | XRP/BTC Average % Change |
|---|---|
| September | +17.0% |
| October | -19.6% |
| November | +30.5% |
| December | +44.1% |
The analyst emphasized that the sequence is significant. He described September as a period of “rotation,” October as a “shakeout,” with November and December bringing “expansion” and “acceleration,” respectively. According to Egrag, October stands out as the most challenging month, as XRP underperformed Bitcoin in 11 of the last 13 years during this period.
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AAPLOctober has historically brought the sharpest declines for XRP against Bitcoin, but these setbacks have often been followed by strong rebounds in the last quarter months.
Egrag pointed out past years as examples: in 2020, XRP fell 22.4% against Bitcoin in October but gained 93.8% in November. Similarly, in 2024, XRP dropped 24.9% in October and then surged 179.2% in November relative to Bitcoin.
XRP’s 2026 Performance and Outlook
Examining data from 2026, Egrag noted that XRP generally underperformed Bitcoin for most of the year. His figures show a decline of 0.5% in January, 1.8% in February, 4.4% in March, and 8.8% in April. XRP rose 1.0% in May but fell 2.0% in June and 4.8% in July. The trend shifted in August, with XRP posting a 4.0% gain against Bitcoin.
This August result is key to Egrag’s current analysis. He questioned whether this positive turn signals the start of a broader move of capital from Bitcoin into XRP.
Mini dictionary: Egrag Crypto is an independent crypto analyst known for his detailed technical analysis and frequent posts on market seasonality and price patterns in leading cryptocurrency pairs.
If XRP/BTC breaks its August high, Q4 could get explosive, with renewed volatility in October and further upside possible in November and December.
Critical Resistance and Historical Perspective
Egrag indicated that the key technical level is the August high for the XRP/BTC pair. He stated that a breakout above this level could confirm the scenario for an outsized move during the final quarter.
He also warned that while past trends are informative, historical performance does not guarantee future results. Egrag outlined that an October dip would not necessarily derail a bullish outlook for the remainder of the year, provided the pattern of past strong rebounds holds.
He concluded his analysis by stressing the importance of objective data, commenting, “Men lie. Women lie. Charts and numbers don’t lie.”
