XRP’s recent climb away from the $0.98 level has prompted renewed discussion among traders over whether the asset has formed a long-term bottom. Yet, crypto analyst ChartNerd cautioned that technical confirmations remain insufficient for a definitive trend reversal.
XRP’s struggle with major resistance levels
ChartNerd pointed to the significance of the monthly 20 exponential moving average (EMA) and the weekly 50 EMA in the current phase of the XRP market outlook. In his latest update, the analyst highlighted that XRP recently tested the monthly 20 EMA for the first time since it fell below the average in January 2026.
According to ChartNerd, similar tests of the monthly 20 EMA have occurred after previous price corrections, but these moves did not always result in sustained recoveries. He analyzed XRP’s historical price action from 2015 onward and noted notable patterns throughout past market cycles.
During the period that followed XRP’s peak in 2013, the asset dropped below the monthly 20 EMA before rallying nearly 100% back toward it. After failing to reclaim that average, XRP slipped another 63% to 65%. ChartNerd also referenced a comparable situation after the 2018 market cycle, when XRP gained 211% on a rally into the monthly 20 EMA, but again declined about 63% to 70%, eventually hitting its 2020 low.
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AAPLThe analyst’s current outlook focuses on the $1.53 to $1.55 region, where both the monthly 20 EMA and weekly 50 EMA converge. He suggested that this confluence acts as a critical test for the next direction of the asset.
| Market Cycle | Rally Towards 20 EMA | Subsequent Decline |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 Peak | ~100% | 63–65% |
| 2018 Cycle | 211% | 63–70% |
| 2021 Cycle | 74% | Significant pullback |
The importance of moving averages and confirmation
In the current cycle, ChartNerd observed that XRP rallied significantly from the $0.98 low, reaching approximately 73% of the monthly 20 EMA in August. Nonetheless, the asset was unable to close above this moving average, suggesting that resistance remains unbroken.
He also highlighted the ongoing importance of these moving averages as key indicators in XRP’s trading landscape. ChartNerd emphasized that both the weekly 50 EMA and monthly 20 EMA must be convincingly surpassed before any declaration of a lasting bottom can be made.
“While $0.98 may feel like the bottom, until we see major resistance breaks and further confirmation— especially clearing $1.50 to $2 — a double bottom or sweep below remains possible. Painful, yet respecting it keeps long-term opportunity alive,” he noted.
“These are the XRP charts almost no one is watching: while $0.98 may feel like the bottom, until we see major resistance breaks and further confirmation (clearing $1.50–$2) a double bottom or sweep below stays in play. Painful, yet respecting it keeps long-term opportunity alive.”
Prospects for a deeper retracement
ChartNerd warned that unless XRP can convincingly break above its primary moving averages, the possibility remains for a return toward the $1 region or even lower. He argued that further retracement cannot be excluded and drew on past market cycles as valuable reference points for current risk assessment.
At the same time, the analyst does not expect a repeat of XRP’s deepest historical downturns, but he maintained that investors should await clear signals before making firm conclusions about the bottom.
He stated that a strong move above the $1.50 to $2 resistance area—particularly a sustained close—would strengthen the argument for the $0.98 level to function as the new cycle’s low.
Ripple Labs, the company associated with XRP, is a blockchain-based payments firm known for its cross-border transaction technology. ChartNerd is a pseudonymous figure known for technical analysis in the cryptocurrency sector, providing market perspectives on X.
Mini dictionary: 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), a technical indicator that assigns more weight to recent price data to identify market trends and potential support or resistance levels. The 50 EMA similarly tracks intermediate-term momentum over weekly timeframes.
ChartNerd’s central message underscores the need for caution and patience regarding $XRP’s structure, stating that technical confirmation rather than speculation should guide investment decisions. For now, the $1.50 to $2 price area remains the critical confirmation zone to watch.
