Silver traded close to $66 an ounce early Tuesday, with the metal drawing support from a softer U.S. dollar. However, expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and elevated Treasury yields limited significant gains. According to Kitco’s spot prices at 2:15 a.m. in New York, the bid stood at $66.13 and the ask at $66.38, with silver’s session range spanning from $65.96 to $67.29.
Technical levels and recent volatility
After sharp price swings in early 2026, the silver market has recently settled into a more stable range. XAG/USD, the currency pair tracking silver’s value in U.S. dollars, saw dramatic gains past $120 an ounce in January before falling back. Monthly trading has since stabilized, with the low for September registered at $63.31 and the current price around $66.
Technical analysis from Reuters identified $71.54, last reached on June 17, as a major resistance level, while $62.54 serves as critical support. A sustained upward move above the $70 to $80 range would be necessary to shift the long-term technical outlook in favor of the bulls. Conversely, if silver falls below $62.54, it could pave the way for further declines.
| Level | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Main Near-Term | $62.54 | $71.54 |
| Trading Range | $63 | $70–$72 |
Buyers have defended the mid-$60s region following the reversal from January highs, while attempts to move beyond $70 to $72 have faltered. The outcome of upcoming U.S. inflation reports could play a decisive role in determining the next direction for silver prices.
Futures volume trends and market participation
Trading activity in silver futures and options surged toward the end of August, peaking at over 110,000 combined contracts on August 28, before daily volumes slipped to about half those levels by September 4. This reduction in volume suggests a more cautious stance among traders as the market consolidates.
CME Group, a leading derivatives marketplace, reported that Micro Silver futures averaged 63,000 contracts per day in August, reflecting a 286% year-over-year increase. Metals market activity on the exchange remains strong, even though recent volume has cooled off.
Mini dictionary: CME Group, a major U.S.-based financial market company, facilitates trading in futures, options, and other derivatives, serving as one of the world’s most prominent venues for metals trading.
Rising prices accompanied by renewed volume would offer a more convincing sign of a market recovery than gains made in a quiet market.
Consistent defense of the $63-$66 area keeps the prospect of a new move toward $70 and $71.54 alive, but any break below $62.54 could trigger renewed downside in silver.
Macro environment and institutional outlook
The broader macroeconomic landscape continues to produce mixed signals for silver. On Tuesday, Reuters recorded silver at $66.96, a 1.2% increase, as the U.S. dollar index dipped to a two-week low of 98.82, generally creating tailwinds for dollar-priced commodities. Still, strong August employment figures pushed market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike in September to about 60%, tempering bullish sentiment.
Traders are now watching upcoming U.S. producer and consumer price index releases, scheduled for Thursday and Friday. Softer inflation could ease concerns over further Fed tightening, potentially lowering yields and supporting a move higher in silver. Conversely, stronger inflation readings would likely reinforce policy hawkishness and put additional pressure on the precious metal, especially if prices drop below key support levels.
Long-term demand, supply, and forecasts
Longer-term, supply and demand factors remain influential. J.P. Morgan Global Research has projected that silver could reach $63 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, while a recent Reuters survey shows a wide range of institutional views, with a median forecast of $71.90 for the year.
The Silver Institute, an industry association focused on global silver supply and demand trends, expects a 46.3 million-ounce deficit in the 2026 market. While weaker demand for solar photovoltaic applications may weigh on industrial usage, continued investment in AI infrastructure, automobiles, and power-grid upgrades is expected to provide underlying support.
Mini dictionary: The Silver Institute is an international nonprofit association made up of silver producers, refiners, and manufacturers, providing industry data, analysis, and market forecasts.
For now, silver’s position depends on whether buyers can transform the $63-$66 region into a platform for renewed gains. A sustained move above $70 would signal a shift out of recovery and toward a lasting uptrend.
