French crypto analyst Egrag has released a new technical analysis focused on XRP, one of the largest altcoins by market capitalization. Egrag’s assessment centers on understanding XRP’s historical bull runs using both arithmetic and geometric averages to determine potential future price levels.
XRP’s historical bull runs analyzed
Reviewing XRP’s past market cycles, Egrag calculated the percentage gains for three major rally periods. According to the analyst, XRP posted price surges of 2,405%, 1,002%, and 1,250% across its previous bull cycles. These moves have commonly served as reference points within the crypto community for projecting potential future trajectories.
To provide a precise projection, Egrag used two mathematical approaches. The arithmetic average of these rallies is 1,552%, while the geometric mean stands at 1,444%. Applying the geometric mean to XRP’s price, Egrag estimated the token could potentially reach around $13 if a similar bull run unfolds.
The analyst contrasted each method, explaining that arithmetic averaging gives equal weight to each market cycle. In contrast, the geometric mean measures compounded growth and is considered more conservative in its projections. Egrag stated a preference for the geometric approach, emphasizing its suitability for measuring compounded returns across multiple cycles.
Mathematically, the geometric mean “measures the average compounded multiplicative expansion across those three cycles”, and is less speculative than other calculation methods, Egrag argued.
Egrag also dismissed the use of more speculative price prediction tools such as smoothed moving averages or Fibonacci retracement levels for these projections, stating, “No fantasy numbers, no random targets. Just Math.”
Mini dictionary: Geometric mean – In financial analysis, geometric mean reflects the average rate of return per period on assets that are compounded over multiple periods, providing a more conservative estimate where compounding is relevant.
| Cycle | XRP Bull Run (%) |
|---|---|
| First cycle | 2,405% |
| Second cycle | 1,002% |
| Third cycle | 1,250% |
| Arithmetic average | 1,552% |
| Geometric mean | 1,444% |
External factors and altcoin market context
Egrag acknowledged that past performance cannot guarantee future results, especially in the unpredictable cryptocurrency market. The analyst highlighted how macroeconomic factors such as rising energy prices and ongoing political uncertainties continue to impact digital assets, including blue-chip altcoins like XRP.
Citing market research from Wintermute, a leading liquidity provider in digital assets, Egrag highlighted that large-cap altcoins have demonstrated relative resilience. Several of these coins managed to hold key price levels even as technology stocks experienced sharp sell-offs in recent weeks.
The stability of major altcoins amid equity market volatility suggests that sector rotation and broader economic factors continue to influence crypto performance alongside technical elements.
Egrag’s latest analysis adds to the ongoing discussion regarding the role of mathematical modeling in anticipating price movements for high-profile cryptocurrencies. While technical patterns offer one perspective, industry observers continue to monitor both chart-based analysis and macroeconomic trends for a more complete outlook on future price action.
