XRP currently trades at a crucial technical zone, where its next major direction could be determined. The cryptocurrency remains compressed between significant weekly moving averages, with traders closely monitoring for an imminent breakout or deeper correction.
XRP faces critical resistance between moving averages
According to technical analyst ChartNerd, XRP sits between its 20-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 50-week EMA, around $1.52, is acting as stiff resistance, while the 20-week EMA is providing nearby support. ChartNerd described this range as a critical decision zone, emphasizing that XRP’s lack of a decisive move leaves both bullish and bearish outcomes in play.
After falling from the $1.30-$1.50 area and dipping below $1 to a low near $0.98, XRP rebounded sharply to touch $1.70. Despite this rally, it remained unable to close above the 50-week EMA, triggering a subsequent three- to four-week correction. During this period, XRP approached the 20-week EMA, found support at approximately $1.25, then rebounded to $1.40 and is now retesting the 50-week EMA resistance level.
ChartNerd highlighted that XRP is compressing into a decision zone, where ongoing tests of key weekly moving averages could set the stage for the next significant move. Market participants are advised to focus on the structure around the 50-week and 20-week EMAs for confirmation of trend direction.
Breakout above $1.80 would confirm a bullish setup
A weekly close above the 50-week EMA, ChartNerd stated, would strengthen XRP’s short-term bullish structure. He identified $1.80 as the next important target, noting that the price has not yet retested this former support level after losing it. Reclaiming $1.80 could solidify the recent $0.98 low as a significant bottom and potentially open the door for a larger move higher, though the analyst cautioned about the risk of retracements even after such a breakout.
ChartNerd also pointed to previous XRP cycles in which the token rose above the 50-week EMA only to later establish new lower lows, emphasizing that a break of resistance does not guarantee a lasting bullish trend.
Support at $1.31 is key for market structure
If XRP fails to break the 50-week EMA and subsequently loses its support at the 20-week EMA, currently around $1.31, ChartNerd noted the possibility of a deeper retracement, with the prospect of retesting the previous $0.98 low. He advised traders to remain vigilant and to consider scenarios that include both a continuation of the uptrend and a potential reversal toward lower levels.
ChartNerd argued that traders should not assume XRP will continue higher without clear confirmation, pointing to the technical importance of both support and resistance in shaping near-term price action.
Analyst sticks to midterm DCA strategy
Looking ahead, ChartNerd reiterated his dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy for the midterm period. He referenced previous cycles in which accumulating XRP midyear often led to positive outcomes, though he acknowledged that patterns can have exceptions and that no method offers certainty.
Aside from weekly moving averages, ChartNerd mentioned the 20-month EMA, positioned around $1.56, as another technical level that could impact market structure. Reclaiming both the weekly 50-week EMA and the monthly 20-month EMA, in his view, would support the bullish thesis with $1.80 as a possible next target.
As XRP compresses between these averages, ChartNerd recommends monitoring for an eventual breakout in either direction. He believes confirmation will arrive once the price decisively clears either the $1.52 resistance or the $1.31 support.
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