Bitcoin’s recent price rally is largely powered by assets already circulating in the market, rather than substantial new capital inflows, according to analysis from Glassnode, an onchain analytics platform.
Limited impact of new capital on Bitcoin’s growth
Data from Glassnode indicates that rolling 30-day cumulative net inflows of “new money” into Bitcoin reached $4.9 billion as of October 5. These inflows reflect purchases from corporate treasuries, growth in stablecoin reserves, and capital moving into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Despite this influx, Bitcoin’s realized cap, which is the total value of each coin at the price it last moved onchain, increased by $12.8 billion in the same 30-day period. This metric suggests that existing holders have played a more prominent role in driving up the realized cap during this timeframe.
“New money therefore covers less than two fifths of that rise. The rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market,” Glassnode wrote in its recent Week Onchain newsletter.
The data further reveals that, since January 2024—the month US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched—rallies in BTC/USD have exhibited a similar divergence between new money and realized cap growth. However, current inflows are more modest compared with the substantial short-term realized-cap expansions seen in early 2024.
Mini dictionary: Glassnode, a blockchain data analytics platform, provides insights and metrics on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by analyzing onchain activity, market movements, and investor behavior.
| Period | New money inflows | Realized cap growth |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days to Oct. 5 | $4.9 billion | $12.8 billion |
Short-term holders take profits as price rises stall
Since September 21, Bitcoin has made four unsuccessful attempts to break above $87,000. Each effort was met with thicker sell-side liquidity on exchange order books, leaving BTC/USD trading near $83,000 as of Thursday, a 1% decline for the month to date.
Glassnode also highlighted an increase in profit-taking among recent buyers during the first weekly close above $85,000 since January. On that day, approximately 86% of coins sent to exchanges came from short-term holders—those owning Bitcoin for less than 155 days—compared to the usual daily average below two fifths.
The record share of profit-taking by short-term holders marked the highest level in a year, as this group remains highly reactive to rising prices. On typical days, coins moved by these investors represent a much smaller proportion of exchange inflows.
Short-term holders, generally considered more sensitive to market volatility, are still in aggregate profit. Their overall cost basis, tracked as the realized price, stood near $78,250 as of October 7, according to data from CryptoQuant.
Despite periods of profit-taking and failed upward runs, short-term investors continue to drive much of the day-to-day price movement and liquidity in the current marketplace.
