Dogecoin traded around $0.0802 on October 17, representing a 7.6% decline from its weekly opening figure. The move pushed the cryptocurrency below the $0.081 price point identified as key by market analyst Ali Martinez.
Trendline retest and whale accumulation
Trader Tardigrade, a cryptocurrency analyst known for technical chart reviews, pointed to Dogecoin’s return to a monthly support trendline that has signaled significant price bounces in the past. Tardigrade identified three such contact points: in 2017, in 2020, and a projected repeat in 2026. His analysis suggested that in both previous instances, the price rebounded sharply after touching this line. Dogecoin is now positioned just below this long-term trendline once again.
Ali Martinez focused on a daily TD Sequential buy signal appearing near $0.081, an indicator designed to identify potential trend reversals by counting distinct price moves. Martinez also referenced on-chain data from Glassnode, which found that nearly 36 billion DOGE last moved close to this price—data reflecting historical transfer activity rather than a snapshot of active buy orders.
Dogecoin has returned to the same monthly trendline that triggered strong rallies in 2017 and 2020. The pattern could signal another attempt at a price recovery, as large holders continue accumulating significant amounts of DOGE.
Between October 12 and October 16, Santiment data showed large holders increased their collective balance from approximately 55.6 billion to 56.2 billion DOGE, amounting to around 600 million additional tokens over four days. At a price of $0.08025, the added DOGE is valued at $48.2 million. It is unclear at what prices each acquisition was made.
Martinez highlighted that a sustained rebound from $0.081 could lead DOGE to profit-taking levels at $0.16 and $0.17, where a combined total of 26 billion DOGE previously changed hands. Such moves would represent a 99% and 112% gain from the $0.08025 level respectively, though Martinez did not give a timeline for these targets.
Mini dictionary: TD Sequential, a technical analysis indicator that counts consecutive price bars in an uptrend or downtrend, seeking to identify trend exhaustion and possible reversal points. Frequently used by traders to spot buy and sell signals on charts.
Technical weakness and liquidation bands
On the daily chart, Dogecoin traded between a high of $0.08094 and a low of $0.07982, with the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at $0.08847. The token remained about 9.3% below this midpoint and 3.7% above the band’s lower boundary, signaling subdued price momentum. The Awesome Oscillator stayed negative, reflecting weak short-term buying interest.
On the weekly timeframe reported by Binance, Dogecoin’s price fell below the 20-week simple moving average of $0.08163, the 50-week at $0.10188, as well as the 100-week and 200-week averages, which were $0.17248 and $0.13765 respectively. The weekly Chaikin Money Flow registered minus 0.06, indicating modest selling pressure.
| Indicator | Value ($) |
|---|---|
| Current price | 0.08025 |
| Weekly opening | 0.08678 |
| 20-day Bollinger midpoint | 0.08847 |
| 20-week MA | 0.08163 |
| 50-week MA | 0.10188 |
| Profit-taking targets | 0.16 / 0.17 |
Dogecoin was also identified among four cryptocurrencies flashing technical buy signals, with recovery levels cited at $0.087 and $0.094. Climbing back to those prices from $0.08025 would require advances of roughly 8.4% and 17.1% and would place Dogecoin above the daily Bollinger midpoint. However, both levels remain below the longer-term 50-week moving average.
Modeled liquidation concentrations for Dogecoin clustered at $0.0773 and $0.0844, according to CoinGlass data, with smaller pockets around $0.078 to $0.079 and $0.083 to $0.0836. These areas suggest where traders’ positions might face forced closure if price volatility increases further.
Dogecoin’s price declined sharply from above $0.084 on October 14, staged a brief recovery to $0.0825 on October 16, then slipped back toward the $0.080 mark. This latest movement represents a 19.8% drop from the $0.10 level reached after a 25% rally on September 23.
Meanwhile, Bitwise, a leading cryptocurrency asset manager, scheduled the conversion of its Dogecoin fund holdings to cash on October 14. Cash distributions for shareholders were set for October 22.
