Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has pointed to recurring similarities in XRP’s price chart, drawing parallels to two previous market cycles that both preceded notable upward moves. As XRP trades near a key uptrend support, the analyst is focused on whether the monthly candle will confirm a breakout retest and open the door to further gains.
XRP cycle analysis highlights three-stage pattern
Egrag Crypto’s recent analysis, shared on X, explores how XRP’s monthly chart has exhibited a repeating three-step sequence during major historical moves: breakout, correction, and a rejection candle at critical support.
In earlier cycles, the first candle typically delivered a strong rally, marked by an upper wick. This advance was followed by a correction phase, which saw a bearish engulfing candle and a retest of the breakout zone. The third part of the sequence brought a bullish rejection candle near the rising support, historically preceding a sustained upward expansion in XRP’s price.
Egrag Crypto suggests the current market structure closely resembles these earlier phases. He notes previous breakout-retest points from 2020 and 2023, with the present chart setup again testing the long-term rising yellow trendline.
The cycle’s third candle, described as “dragonfly-like,” is considered the potential signal that could foreshadow another rally. While the chart echoes the prior stages, the next decisive move depends on whether XRP can reject lower prices at key support and form another bullish monthly candle similar to those seen during previous breakouts.
Egrag Crypto is monitoring the coming monthly candle to see if XRP will once again mirror the pattern by bouncing from support right after a breakout retest, which would reinforce his historical comparison.
Candle formation still awaits confirmation
As of now, Egrag Crypto has not observed the completion of the anticipated bullish candle. He emphasizes the importance of a clear signal, stating that until a convincing monthly rejection forms at the trendline, the recurring pattern remains unverified in the current cycle.
The analyst’s chart indicates price levels at $1.61 and $2.40 above XRP’s current value, with another technical level at $1.07 serving as a projected retest area. These reference points help set context for potential moves should the chart pattern play out.
However, Egrag Crypto points out that the existence of a pattern alone does not guarantee a repeat outcome. He expects the market to provide confirmation before assuming another strong rally could develop.
Community urges caution on prediction reliability
Other observers have conveyed caution, with at least one commenter, DJTuin591, noting that back-to-back historical cycles do not ensure a third. Confirmation by price action would matter more than simply identifying a familiar chart structure.
A similar formation could increase confidence, but chart patterns only outline possible scenarios and do not offer certainty about future price moves. For traders, it remains essential to monitor whether XRP delivers a strong bullish rejection candle before considering the cycle truly repeated.
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For now, Egrag Crypto’s focus remains on the anticipated third monthly candle. Its formation would strengthen the historical comparison and may point to the next major development in the XRP price cycle.
