Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has identified a significant pattern on the XRP weekly chart, suggesting potential downside risk if a key technical signal is confirmed. Steph Is Crypto, known for in-depth technical analysis of digital assets, flagged the development as a possible warning for XRP investors.
RSI bearish cross triggers caution
The analysis centers on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on XRP’s weekly timeframe. Steph monitors two elements: the RSI line itself and its moving average, often referred to as the signal line.
Historically, each time the RSI line has crossed below its moving average since the market low in June 2022, XRP has recorded notable price declines. The latest setup is approaching a similar crossing point, which Steph describes as a critical juncture for the asset.
This pattern, commonly known as a bearish cross, has not been fully confirmed yet. However, Steph remarked that the situation “definitely isn’t a good look,” signaling heightened caution among market observers.
Steph suggests the current RSI formation could have significant price consequences, emphasizing the importance of the weekly close for XRP’s outlook.
Mini dictionary: Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, typically used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in a market.
Historical signals and price drops
Steph’s analysis highlights several historical RSI bearish crosses on XRP’s weekly chart. The first occurred between October 31 and November 7, 2022, when XRP traded between $0.47 and $0.50; this signal preceded a 41% drop over ten weeks.
In May 2023, the bearish cross led to a smaller decline of 12% over a single week. Subsequent signals resulted in further drawdowns of 17%, 39%, 26%, 39%, and 24%. Notably, the largest decline, 49%, occurred on January 27 during a bull market period.
On August 18, 2025, another signal preceded a steep 64% correction, which pulled XRP sharply down from its all-time high of $3.65 reached the previous month. According to Steph’s analysis, bearish signals during bull markets have historically resulted in sharper declines compared to similar patterns during bear markets or transitional periods.
| Date | XRP Price Range | Drawdown (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2022 | $0.47 – $0.50 | 41 |
| May 2023 | — | 12 |
| Jan 2024 | — | 17, 39, 26, 39, 24 |
| Aug 2025 | From $3.65 | 64 |
Analyst’s outlook and potential scenarios
Steph explained that the upcoming weekly close will be decisive. A green weekly close could prevent confirmation of the bearish signal, but Steph warns that “this week needs to turn out to be a green week. Otherwise it will unfortunately get confirmed.”
Should the bearish cross confirm, Steph outlines two possible outcomes. The minimum expected pullback is around 12%, which would put XRP in the $1.13 to $1.14 range. If the drop matches typical historical patterns, XRP could fall toward $0.78 to $0.80 in line with previous significant declines observed between 2022 and 2024.
Key price levels for reversal
Steph maintains a short-term bearish outlook on XRP unless price action shifts decisively. For a strong reversal signal, Steph requires a break above the $1.50 region confirmed by a weekly close. Until then, Steph’s position remains cautious in anticipation of the potential bearish confirmation.
To confirm a full reversal, Steph looks for a weekly close above the $1.50 level, which would signal renewed strength in XRP.
