Bitcoin‘s so-called midterm election ‘curse’ has emerged once again as November 3 approaches, with market analysts drawing attention to four separate declines that have accompanied past U.S. voting cycles. Ali Martinez, a well-known crypto market commentator, highlighted this pattern, reviving discussions among investors although there is no direct evidence that elections caused these moves.
Midterm cycles marked by notable Bitcoin drawdowns
In a recent social media post on October 24, Martinez pointed to drawdowns of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022, all coinciding with U.S. midterm election periods. His analysis emphasizes declines that occurred around election cycles, rather than annual returns, drawing a distinction critical to this observed pattern.
Further examination shows these losses occurred under varied market circumstances. Data from Binance Research calculated yearly drops of 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. The 2010 cycle was omitted due to low trading volume and liquidity at the time.
Quarterly performance figures reveal additional nuance. Bitcoin soared 391% in the last quarter of 2010, while subsequent cycles posted declines of 16.7% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022. These numbers underscore that drawdowns and standard calendar-period results do not fully overlap, making it difficult to claim a direct election effect.
Broader market events have played a significant role in shaping these price movements. In 2014, the collapse of Mt. Gox marked a turning point for Bitcoin. The 2018 correction was deepened by the contentious Bitcoin Cash split. During the 2022 cycle, increased interest rates reduced risk appetite, and FTX’s bankruptcy three days after voting pressured crypto markets even further.
Drawdowns after midterm elections occurred alongside events such as Mt. Gox’s failure in 2014, the Bitcoin Cash hard fork in 2018, and the FTX bankruptcy in 2022, complicating efforts to isolate elections as the clear catalyst for declines.
Timing also varied from cycle to cycle: Bitcoin touched its cycle low 71 days after the 2014 vote, 38 days after the 2018 election, and just 13 days post-2022 midterms. This inconsistent pattern runs counter to the idea that election dates reliably align with Bitcoin bottoms.
Key demand zones, ETF outflows, and imminent Fed decision
The recent cycle has displayed notable price resilience. Bitcoin climbed nearly 40% between its July low near $57,850 and roughly $81,455 reached by October 22. Glassnode analytics flagged a demand zone between $80,000 and $81,500, an area that aligns closely with average Bitcoin acquisition costs for U.S. spot ETF issuers and corporate treasuries. Their models set a broader valuation anchor just above $77,600.
Price analysts currently observe resistance for Bitcoin between $85,000 and $87,500. Martinez pointed to $73,000 as a potential support tied to cost basis data for short-term holders, while Glassnode’s own short-term realized price stands at about $75,800.
The downside scenario is far from definitive, with analysts highlighting the impact of institutional flows. On October 22, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $635.6 million in net outflows, adding to the uncertainty as markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on October 28.
Price monitoring ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision remains crucial, as rapid shifts in ETF inflows or outflows and spot pricing could quickly alter market direction for Bitcoin.
In an environment where price-sensitive catalysts like central bank moves or new altcoin listings can trigger swift volatility, investor focus has shifted toward integrated analytics. Many traders are adopting privacy-first platforms such as CryptoAppsy, citing advantages like real-time chart access, customizable price alerts, project-specific news feeds, and essential macroeconomic data—without requiring an account or switching between multiple applications.
Although the cycle of post-election pessimism continues to capture market sentiment, the evidence suggests that simultaneous external shocks and broader institutional positioning play a far more significant role in Bitcoin’s price path than the timing of elections alone.
