JD, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst recognized for his technical studies of major altcoins, has released a fresh analysis on XRP’s long-term price structure. His recent assessment points to a potential market shift as XRP completes a significant breakout after a prolonged period of downward movement.
The breakout from the falling wedge
XRP has been trading in a persistent downtrend since reaching its all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025, characterized by repeated lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. Each recovery attempt during this period failed to surpass previous peaks, reinforcing the prevailing bearish pattern.
According to JD’s chart analysis, XRP eventually broke out of this protracted pattern, exiting its falling wedge formation. Following a brief decline beneath the $1 mark, the coin staged a sharp rally in August, producing a higher high. This change signals the first confirmed breach of the descending structure since the previous cycle top, shifting attention to whether a new uptrend is emerging.
JD highlights the importance of this milestone on the weekly chart, noting that the next step to validate a bullish trend will be the formation of a higher low. He emphasizes that without this confirmation, any new upward phase remains unproven. If a higher low is established, JD notes it would confirm a typical bullish sequence—alternating higher lows and higher highs—often observed in strong uptrends.
After months of forming lower highs and lower lows, XRP finally broke out and delivered a higher high. JD now looks for confirmation of a higher low to establish a new bullish structure.
Key risk signaled by weekly RSI
Alongside the breakout, JD points to a technical risk emerging from the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). The indicator is nearing a bearish cross, a pattern that has previously ushered in significant declines. JD notes two historical instances: the last bearish cross on the weekly RSI resulted in a 27% correction, while another prior signal contributed to a decline of 63%.
As of JD’s latest analysis, XRP trades at $1.2839, hovering near the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels marked on his technical chart. He highlights a grey box just below the current price region, suggesting this area could play a pivotal role if downward pressure mounts.
Mini dictionary: Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis. It measures the magnitude of recent price changes to identify overbought or oversold conditions in an asset.
| RSI Event | Previous Drop After Signal |
|---|---|
| First bearish cross | 63% |
| Most recent bearish cross | 27% |
Long-term outlook toward 2028
JD’s analysis extends beyond short-term signals, outlining a possible upward trajectory toward 2028. He projects a target above $3.80 if the new bullish structure is confirmed and remains intact over the coming years. According to JD, this level serves as a potential profit-taking point, contingent on ongoing technical strength and a sustained shift in trend.
JD’s projection indicates that if XRP’s bullish reversal holds, the price could exceed $3.80 by 2028 and approach new record highs.
