Bitcoin and gold, two assets traditionally viewed as hedges against economic uncertainty, are finishing 2026 as the lowest performers among major investments. Meanwhile, cash held in short-term US Treasury bills has delivered positive returns this year.
Bitcoin and gold trail as other assets outperform
Charlie Bilello, strategist at Creative Planning, reported that Bitcoin has fallen 7.3% and gold has lost 7.5% through October 25, placing them at the bottom of his investment rankings for 2026. Bilello noted that this is the first time both assets have ended the year together in last place since he began tracking 21 major asset classes in 2011.
In contrast, a broad commodities index surged 52.5% in 2026, large-cap US stocks rose 12.3%, and short-term Treasury bills yielded 2.9%. These figures highlight the underperformance of assets often touted as safe havens during periods of inflation and financial volatility.
| Asset | 2026 YTD Return |
|---|---|
| Commodities Index | +52.5% |
| US Large Cap Stocks | +12.3% |
| Short-term US Treasuries | +2.9% |
| Bitcoin | -7.3% |
| Gold | -7.5% |
This year has been challenging broadly, with only 57% of tracked asset classes showing gains. Yet, Bitcoin and gold’s slide stands out as particularly significant for investors seeking protection from economic stress.
Gold volatility and Bitcoin’s continued struggles
Gold’s retreat comes after a record-setting 2025, when it rose 63.7%. Early in 2026, gold climbed above $5,400 an ounce but slipped below $4,000 last week for the first time since July, ending Friday at $3,995.81. On Monday, gold inched up 0.3% to $4,008.70, while US gold futures for December also gained 0.3% to $4,021.90. This recovery followed a 4% weekly drop, marking the sharpest decline since June.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains under pressure. The world’s largest cryptocurrency currently trades at $80,472, about 35% below its record of over $126,000 set last October. This marks a second straight year of negative performance for Bitcoin, following a 6.3% drop in 2025.
Despite the recent downturn, Bilello notes that Bitcoin has averaged annual gains of 120.6% since 2011. Gold’s comparable figure is 6.3%. However, these long-term averages have offered little solace to investors facing losses in 2026.
Rising yields and energy prices weigh on non-yielding assets
Neither gold nor Bitcoin provides interest to holders. As US interest rates rise, investors have gravitated toward assets and bonds that offer returns. This shift has made it more costly to maintain positions in non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin, especially in an environment where returns from cash and stocks are strong.
At the same time, Brent crude oil hit $116 per barrel last week amid rising tensions between the US and Iran, potentially adding further inflationary pressure. ING analysts stated that the gold market remains focused on the outlook for higher oil prices and their impact on inflation, rather than reacting to declines in technology stocks.
The market appears more focused on higher oil prices and what it could mean for inflation expectations.
Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Qatari officials in Tehran working alongside US counterparts to address regional stability concerns.
Key policy meetings and inflation data ahead
Looking ahead, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting on October 27-28 is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, futures markets suggest rising expectations of a rate increase in December, with CME FedWatch estimating the probability as high as 79%.
Investors are also closely watching the upcoming release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data, one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures as it aims to reach its 2% inflation target.
Unattributed Bitcoin holdings raise questions
Despite more institutional interest in Bitcoin, much of its ownership remains unidentified. Galaxy, a digital asset financial services firm, classified 11.1 million BTC—roughly 55% of circulating supply—as unattributed as of October.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, observed in a recent post that, even with increased centralization, significant amounts of Bitcoin are still held in unknown or self-custody accounts. This figure includes coins held by unidentified institutions as well as those with lost private keys.
Mini dictionary: Galaxy is a digital asset financial services and investment management firm focused on cryptocurrency industry research, asset management, and trading. The company is known for analyzing blockchain data and market trends.
Elsewhere in precious metals, silver increased 0.2% to $54, platinum slid 0.3% to $1,546.18, and palladium dropped 0.5% to $1,038.85. Only two months remain in the year, leaving limited time for any major turnaround.
