Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has outlined several bearish signals emerging in the $XRP market that may push the digital asset down to $0.98. His analysis draws on recent shifts in whale activity, rising exchange balances, and critical technical levels as central factors contributing to the current outlook.
Whale wallets decline as large holders move out
Martinez noted a significant decrease in the number of large wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP, which fell from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks. This development suggests that some of XRP’s largest holders have been reducing their positions, potentially increasing the likelihood of further selling pressure in the market.
The reduction in the number of such wallets marks a change in the circulation dynamics of XRP and may indicate a willingness among major holders to offload significant volumes of the cryptocurrency.
The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP has dropped from 351 to 339, underscoring a potential for more selling as large holders decrease exposure.
Exchange balances climb, signaling supply risk
Alongside the decline in whale wallets, Martinez observed that the total XRP held on exchanges has climbed from 11.003 billion to approximately 11.05 billion within the last week. This rise amounts to around 50 million more XRP sitting on trading platforms compared to previous weeks.
An increase in available supply on exchanges is widely monitored as it tends to precede intensified selling activity, since tokens transferred to trading venues are often positioned for quick liquidation rather than long-term holding.
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$1.26 support remains critical for XRP
Martinez’s technical analysis identified the $1.26 mark as a crucial support level that XRP has repeatedly tested since August. This level forms the lower boundary of a channel pattern, which has now become increasingly important as price action compresses nearby.
He stated that a decisive break below $1.26 could open the door for an initial drop toward $1.11, with the pattern ultimately pointing to a potential slide down to $0.98, roughly 22% from the current support zone.
If XRP fails to hold above $1.26, the combination of whale outflows, elevated exchange balances, and technical weakness could drive the price closer to the $0.98 target in the short term.
Bearish scenario gains credibility
Martinez summarized the bearish case by highlighting three intertwined factors: the ongoing reduction in large-holder wallets, the sustained elevation in exchange balances, and the increasing threat to the $1.26 support. Each component amplifies the likelihood of downward pressure should current trends persist.
Price charts on the 4-hour timeframe have shown XRP testing the lower limits of its channel structure, further intensifying focus on whether the $1.26 level can withstand selling momentum.
Market observers now closely monitor both on-chain and technical metrics as XRP approaches a pivotal period where either trend reversal or further declines could quickly materialize.
