Bitcoin onchain transaction data is pointing toward the initial phase of a new uptrend as long-term holders are showing reduced selling activity. Recent figures suggest that the realized cap share for coins dormant for 18 months or longer has stayed relatively stable since mid-September, slipping only slightly from 26.98% to 26.59%.
Long-term holders signal market shift
According to CryptoQuant, a leading blockchain data analytics platform, investors holding Bitcoin for at least 18 months have become noticeably less active onchain since September 2025. On September 16, this group’s contribution to the realized cap—the total value of all coins based on their last onchain movement—reached 26.98%, the highest level seen since mid-November 2024.
CryptoQuant’s analysis indicates that when the proportion of Bitcoin held for over 18 months increases and then begins to decrease, subsequent bullish rallies frequently occur. The firm referenced historical data showing this pattern before the onset of previous Bitcoin bull markets, and included a chart of UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age bands to illustrate how these long-held coins contribute to the current realized cap.
Reduced onchain spending among these long-term investors often reflects their preference to maintain Bitcoin exposure, aiming for higher profitability over time. Since November 2025, their overall contribution to realized cap has been climbing, with many holders opting to take profits as BTC prices retreated from the current record high of $126,200.
“The market has shifted into a bullish cycle, but we still appear to be in the early stages of the cycle, where such a signal has not even begun yet. This looks like a point where we can remain positive about both the potential upside and the duration of the rally,” stated CryptoQuant analysts.
CryptoQuant also pointed out that the recent reversal in the UTXO trend is still relatively moderate, suggesting that the market may be witnessing just the early stages of more pronounced bullish momentum.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant is a blockchain analytics platform specializing in onchain data, market indicators, and investor behavior insights for cryptocurrency assets.
Market drawdown remains historically shallow
Current data shows that among long-term Bitcoin holders, only those in the 18-month-to-two-year bracket are experiencing a net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193. Bitcoin’s price has dropped beneath this threshold since reaching its 2025 all-time high, while investors holding coins for longer periods remain in profit on aggregate.
CryptoQuant notes that 2026 represents the first bear market in which Bitcoin’s price has remained above the cost basis for the 2-3-year holding cohort, signaling a shift in price resilience compared to previous cycles.
Galaxy Digital, a digital asset company led by Michael Novogratz, described this bear market as the “shallowest” on record, reporting a maximum drawdown of -53% from the most recent all-time high.
Additionally, Bitcoin held dormant for five years or longer—previously linked to supply spikes that limited further price increases—now show declining onchain movement. In 2024, coins that had not moved for five years or more accounted for 67,000 BTC in monthly volume. By 2026, this figure has been reduced to an average of 34,000 BTC per month, indicating a halving in volume over two years.
Galaxy Digital reported that since October 2024, 1.11 million BTC has been distributed from the five-year cohort, with most absorbed by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Bitcoin digital asset treasury (DAT) companies. This shift is believed to contribute to renewed long-term bullish sentiment in the market.
| Period | 5+ Year Dormant BTC Volume (monthly) | Bear Market Drawdown (max) | Realized Cap Share (18m+) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 67,000 BTC | -53% | 26.98% (Sep 16) |
| 2025 | 47,000 BTC | -53% | — |
| 2026 | 34,000 BTC | -53% | 26.59% |
